Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-22
Latest Mar 21 Mar 20 Mar 19 Mar 18 Mar 17 Mar 15 Mar 14
All Games Summary
Total Picks
14
Final results
14
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
57.1%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (14)
Utah State (29-6) 66, Arizona #2 (33-2) 78 [12] Arizona (83.0%)
Florida #4 (27-7) 72, Iowa (22-12) 73 [1] Florida (82.5%)
Miami #25 (26-8) 69, Purdue #8 (28-8) 79 [10] Purdue (77.8%)
Seattle U (21-13) 85, Auburn (18-16) 91 [6] Auburn (76.5%)
Wake Forest (18-16) 75, Illinois State (21-12) 78 [3] Wake Forest (76.1%)
George Washington (19-15) 61, New Mexico (24-10) 86 [25] New Mexico (75.6%)
Kentucky (22-13) 63, Iowa State #6 (28-7) 82 [19] Iowa State (67.9%)
UNLV (18-16) 66, Tulsa (27-7) 77 [11] Tulsa (65.5%)
UCLA (24-11) 57, UConn #7 (30-5) 73 [16] UConn (64.6%)
California (22-11) 75, Saint Joseph's (23-11) 76 [1] California (61.9%)
Oklahoma State (20-14) 70, Wichita State (23-11) 96 [26] Oklahoma State (58.9%)
Texas Tech #20 (23-10) 65, Alabama #18 (24-9) 90 [25] Alabama (57.1%) DOG
Virginia #9 (30-5) 72, Tennessee #23 (23-11) 79 [7] Virginia (51.8%) DOG
Kansas #17 (24-10) 65, St. John's #10 (29-6) 67 [2] Kansas (51.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
14
Final results
14
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
57.1%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
14
Avg Confidence
67.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1649
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
13
ML Win Rate
53.8%
ML Profit
$$-364
ML ROI
-28.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-50.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-50.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Texas Tech 65, Alabama 90 [25] Alabama 57.1% N/A N/A WIN
Kansas 65, St. John's 67 [2] Kansas 51.5% +140 +11.4% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Kansas 65, St. John's 67 [2] Kansas 51.5% +140 +11.4% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Kansas 65, St. John's 67 [2] Kansas 51.5% +140 +11.4% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Seattle U @ Auburn Seattle U 23.5% +700 +11.5% LOSS
St. John's @ Kansas Kansas 51.5% +140 +11.4% LOSS
Saint Joseph's @ California Saint Joseph's 38.1% +200 +6.2% WIN