Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-14
Latest Mar 13 Mar 12 Mar 11 Mar 9 Mar 8 Mar 7 Mar 6
All Games Summary
Total Picks
21
Final results
21
Correct picks
14
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
66.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (21)
Charlotte (17-16) 64, South Florida (23-8) 86 [22] South Florida (85.2%)
Wisconsin #23 (24-9) 65, Michigan #3 (30-2) 68 [3] Michigan (84.8%)
North Carolina Central (14-17) 63, Howard (22-10) 70 [7] Howard (78.7%)
Ole Miss (15-19) 90, Arkansas #17 (24-8) 93 [3] Arkansas (77.3%)
Toledo (19-14) 76, Akron (28-5) 79 [3] Akron (75.0%)
Virginia #10 (29-4) 70, Duke #1 (31-2) 74 [4] Duke (73.4%)
Florida #4 (26-6) 74, Vanderbilt #22 (25-7) 91 [17] Florida (73.2%)
Saint Louis (28-4) 69, Dayton (22-10) 70 [1] Saint Louis (70.7%)
Saint Joseph's (22-10) 64, VCU (25-7) 77 [13] VCU (70.6%)
Cornell (15-12) 76, Yale (23-5) 88 [12] Yale (67.0%)
Utah Valley (25-7) 61, California Baptist (24-8) 63 [2] Utah Valley (65.8%)
Harvard (17-11) 60, Pennsylvania (16-11) 62 [2] Harvard (64.9%)
UCLA (23-10) 66, Purdue #18 (25-8) 73 [7] Purdue (64.9%)
Southern (17-16) 66, Prairie View A&M (17-17) 72 [6] Southern (63.6%)
UC Irvine (23-10) 64, Hawai'i (23-8) 71 [7] UC Irvine (63.2%)
Houston #5 (28-5) 74, Arizona #2 (31-2) 79 [5] Arizona (62.1%)
San Diego State (22-10) 62, Utah State (27-6) 73 [11] Utah State (58.7%)
Vermont (22-11) 59, UMBC (23-8) 74 [15] UMBC (58.0%)
Tulsa (26-6) 68, Wichita State (21-10) 81 [13] Wichita State (55.1%) DOG
Louisiana Tech (20-13) 60, Kennesaw State (20-13) 71 [11] Louisiana Tech (53.1%) DOG
UConn #6 (29-4) 52, St. John's #13 (27-6) 72 [20] St. John's (50.4%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
21
Final results
21
Correct picks
14
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
66.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
21
Avg Confidence
67.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1548
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
21
ML Win Rate
66.7%
ML Profit
$$-29
ML ROI
-1.4%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$27
ROI
13.5%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-235
ROI
-29.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$27
ROI
13.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Louisiana Tech 60, Kennesaw State 71 [11] Louisiana Tech 53.1% +105 +6.3% LOSS
UConn 52, St. John's 72 [20] St. John's 50.4% +127 +8.0% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-235
ROI
-29.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UC Irvine 64, Hawai'i 71 [7] UC Irvine 63.2% -127 +8.9% LOSS
Utah Valley 61, California Baptist 63 [2] Utah Valley 65.8% -149 +8.2% LOSS
UConn 52, St. John's 72 [20] St. John's 50.4% +127 +8.0% WIN
Harvard 60, Pennsylvania 62 [2] Harvard 64.9% -152 +6.8% LOSS
San Diego State 62, Utah State 73 [11] Utah State 58.7% -120 +6.5% WIN
Louisiana Tech 60, Kennesaw State 71 [11] Louisiana Tech 53.1% +105 +6.3% LOSS
Southern 66, Prairie View A&M 72 [6] Southern 63.6% -149 +6.0% LOSS
Cornell 76, Yale 88 [12] Yale 67.0% -181 +5.1% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
North Carolina Central @ Howard North Carolina Central 21.3% +575 +7.2% LOSS
Charlotte @ South Florida Charlotte 14.8% +800 +4.1% LOSS
Purdue @ UCLA UCLA 35.1% +247 +7.5% LOSS