Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-08
Latest Mar 7 Mar 6 Mar 5 Mar 4 Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1
All Games Summary
Total Picks
14
Final results
14
Correct picks
12
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
85.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (14)
Charlotte (15-15) 60, South Florida (22-8) 83 [23] 75-84 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET OVER 156.0		 South Florida (87.7%)
UTSA (5-24) 71, Rice (12-18) 80 [9] 72-75 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 150.0		 Rice (80.6%)
Temple (16-14) 76, Tulsa (24-6) 78 [2] 72-76 ✓ MAE: 2.9
BET UNDER 150.5		 Tulsa (78.7%)
East Carolina (11-19) 83, UAB (19-11) 90 [7] 73-74 ✗ MAE: 13.1
BET UNDER 150.5		 UAB (77.9%)
Michigan State #8 (25-5) 80, Michigan #3 (28-2) 90 [10] 75-82 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET OVER 151.8		 Michigan (76.5%)
Navy (26-6) 72, Boston University (16-16) 73 [1] 69-71 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET OVER 136.8		 Navy (71.4%)
Maryland (11-19) 72, Illinois #11 (23-7) 78 [6] 76-70 ✓ MAE: 1.9
BET OVER 143.5		 Illinois (69.9%)
Iowa (20-10) 75, Nebraska #9 (25-5) 84 [9] 71-69 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET OVER 134.5		 Nebraska (61.7%)
Houston Christian (12-19) 60, New Orleans (15-17) 73 [13] 73-70 ✓ MAE: 7.8
O/U: 142.5		 New Orleans (60.3%)
Northwestern State (10-21) 47, Nicholls (13-18) 61 [14] 72-66 ✗ MAE: 15.3
O/U: 138.8		 Nicholls (60.1%)
Penn State (12-18) 62, Rutgers (12-18) 74 [12] 74-70 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 150.0		 Rutgers (56.5%)
Colgate (18-14) 69, Lehigh (16-16) 76 [7] 75-69 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 146.0		 Lehigh (50.4%) DOG
Green Bay (18-14) 76, Northern Kentucky (19-13) 96 [20] 77-72 ✗ MAE: 11.9
O/U: 147.5		 Green Bay (50.3%) DOG
Tulane (17-13) 95, Memphis (12-18) 96 [1] 66-73 ✗ MAE: 26.0
BET UNDER 153.5		 Memphis (50.1%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
14
Final results
14
Correct picks
12
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
85.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
14
Avg Confidence
66.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1978
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
14
ML Win Rate
85.7%
ML Profit
$$264
ML ROI
18.8%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$10
ROI
5.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
14
Avg Confidence
37.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1227
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
11
O/U Wins
6
O/U Losses
5
O/U Win Rate
54.5%
O/U Profit
$$45
O/U ROI
4.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+2.1%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$10
ROI
5.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Colgate 69, Lehigh 76 [7] Lehigh 50.4% +110 +4.7% WIN
Green Bay 76, Northern Kentucky 96 [20] Green Bay 50.3% +130 +8.6% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Green Bay 76, Northern Kentucky 96 [20] Green Bay 50.3% +130 +8.6% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Illinois @ Maryland Maryland 30.1% +800 +19.5% LOSS
Iowa @ Nebraska Iowa 38.3% +250 +10.7% LOSS
Temple @ Tulsa Temple 21.3% +500 +5.4% LOSS