Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-02
Latest Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 28 Feb 27 Feb 26 Feb 25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
18
Final results
18
Correct picks
11
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
61.1%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (18)
New Orleans (15-16) 78, SE Louisiana (8-22) 82 [4] 71-72 ✗ MAE: 8.4
O/U: 143.8		 New Orleans (84.2%)
Weber State (16-14) 60, Portland State (18-10) 84 [24] 77-76 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET OVER 143.8		 Portland State (82.3%)
Nicholls (13-17) 65, McNeese (25-5) 75 [10] 76-72 ✓ MAE: 4.3
BET OVER 144.8		 McNeese (80.9%)
Coppin State (7-22) 70, Howard (19-10) 90 [20] 65-81 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 138.5		 Howard (79.8%)
Northern Arizona (10-20) 65, Montana State (17-13) 76 [11] 72-75 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET OVER 143.8		 Montana State (78.6%)
Incarnate Word (12-18) 68, Stephen F. Austin (26-4) 76 [8] 73-73 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET OVER 143.2		 Stephen F. Austin (78.3%)
East Texas A&M (11-20) 71, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (16-14) 84 [13] 66-69 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 137.5		 Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (74.5%)
Iowa State #4 (24-5) 57, Arizona #2 (27-2) 73 [16] 79-79 ✗ MAE: 14.4
BET OVER 149.5		 Arizona (65.8%)
Lamar (12-18) 53, Houston Christian (11-19) 75 [22] 64-70 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 132.5		 Lamar (65.3%)
Eastern Washington (13-17) 81, Idaho (16-14) 85 [4] 77-80 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET OVER 150.2		 Idaho (62.2%) DOG
Montana (16-14) 57, Northern Colorado (19-11) 85 [28] 78-83 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET OVER 153.8		 Montana (61.6%) DOG
Norfolk State (15-14) 84, Morgan State (12-15) 90 [6] 76-73 ✗ MAE: 12.5
BET UNDER 155.8		 Morgan State (59.9%) DOG
Maryland Eastern Shore (9-20) 73, North Carolina Central (11-16) 77 [4] 60-67 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 133.5		 North Carolina Central (59.3%) DOG
Idaho State (12-18) 65, Sacramento State (9-20) 83 [18] 75-79 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 160.2		 Idaho State (58.0%) DOG
IU Indianapolis (7-24) 93, Cleveland State (10-21) 101 [8] 81-85 ✗ MAE: 13.9
BET UNDER 170.5		 IU Indianapolis (57.0%) DOG
Northwestern State (10-20) 62, UT Rio Grande Valley (17-13) 74 [12] 68-70 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 138.2		 Northwestern State (56.1%) DOG
Delaware State (6-21) 59, South Carolina State (7-21) 61 [2] 62-65 ✓ MAE: 3.3
BET UNDER 136.5		 South Carolina State (56.0%) DOG
NC State (19-10) 64, Duke #1 (27-2) 93 [29] 81-69 ✗ MAE: 8.2
O/U: 148.5		 NC State (54.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
18
Final results
18
Correct picks
11
Incorrect picks
7
Pending
0
Accuracy
61.1%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
18
Avg Confidence
67.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1621
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
17
ML Win Rate
58.8%
ML Profit
$$-132
ML ROI
-7.7%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-125
ROI
-15.6%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-5
ROI
-1.5%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
12
Wins
5
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
41.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-230
ROI
-19.1%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
12
Wins
5
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
41.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-230
ROI
-19.1%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
1
ATS Wins
0
ATS Losses
1
ATS Win Rate
0.0%
Spread Profit
$$-100
Spread ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
18
Avg Confidence
50.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1542
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
14
O/U Wins
6
O/U Losses
8
O/U Win Rate
42.9%
O/U Profit
$$-255
O/U ROI
-18.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-9.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
2
Completed
2
Covered
1
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-9.10
ROI
-4.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
2
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$-9.10
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Montana State 76 @ Northern Arizona 65 Montana State (78.6%) Montana State -6.2 +9.0 +2.8 -11.0 COVERED
Stephen F. Austin 76 @ Incarnate Word 68 Stephen F. Austin (78.3%) Stephen F. Austin -8.5 +8.6 +0.1 -8.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
8
Wins
3
Losses
5
Pending
0
Win Rate
37.5%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-125
ROI
-15.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Eastern Washington 81, Idaho 85 [4] Idaho 62.2% +140 +22.1% WIN
Montana 57, Northern Colorado 85 [28] Montana 61.6% +250 +34.0% LOSS
Norfolk State 84, Morgan State 90 [6] Morgan State 59.9% +125 +17.0% WIN
Idaho State 65, Sacramento State 83 [18] Idaho State 58.0% +105 +11.2% LOSS
IU Indianapolis 93, Cleveland State 101 [8] IU Indianapolis 57.0% +110 +11.2% LOSS
Northwestern State 62, UT Rio Grande Valley 74 [12] Northwestern State 56.1% +425 +38.0% LOSS
Delaware State 59, South Carolina State 61 [2] South Carolina State 56.0% +110 +10.3% WIN
NC State 64, Duke 93 [29] NC State 54.5% +425 +36.3% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-5
ROI
-1.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
New Orleans 78, SE Louisiana 82 [4] New Orleans 84.2% -320 +11.0% LOSS
Weber State 60, Portland State 84 [24] Portland State 82.3% -200 +18.0% WIN
Northern Arizona 65, Montana State 76 [11] Montana State 78.6% -220 +12.8% WIN
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
12
Wins
5
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
41.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-230
ROI
-19.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northwestern State 62, UT Rio Grande Valley 74 [12] Northwestern State 56.1% +425 +38.0% LOSS
NC State 64, Duke 93 [29] NC State 54.5% +425 +36.3% LOSS
Montana 57, Northern Colorado 85 [28] Montana 61.6% +250 +34.0% LOSS
Eastern Washington 81, Idaho 85 [4] Idaho 62.2% +140 +22.1% WIN
Weber State 60, Portland State 84 [24] Portland State 82.3% -200 +18.0% WIN
Norfolk State 84, Morgan State 90 [6] Morgan State 59.9% +125 +17.0% WIN
Lamar 53, Houston Christian 75 [22] Lamar 65.3% -115 +14.2% LOSS
Northern Arizona 65, Montana State 76 [11] Montana State 78.6% -220 +12.8% WIN
IU Indianapolis 93, Cleveland State 101 [8] IU Indianapolis 57.0% +110 +11.2% LOSS
Idaho State 65, Sacramento State 83 [18] Idaho State 58.0% +105 +11.2% LOSS
New Orleans 78, SE Louisiana 82 [4] New Orleans 84.2% -320 +11.0% LOSS
Delaware State 59, South Carolina State 61 [2] South Carolina State 56.0% +110 +10.3% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
12
Wins
5
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
41.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-230
ROI
-19.1%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northwestern State 62, UT Rio Grande Valley 74 [12] Northwestern State 56.1% +425 +38.0% LOSS
NC State 64, Duke 93 [29] NC State 54.5% +425 +36.3% LOSS
Montana 57, Northern Colorado 85 [28] Montana 61.6% +250 +34.0% LOSS
Eastern Washington 81, Idaho 85 [4] Idaho 62.2% +140 +22.1% WIN
Weber State 60, Portland State 84 [24] Portland State 82.3% -200 +18.0% WIN
Norfolk State 84, Morgan State 90 [6] Morgan State 59.9% +125 +17.0% WIN
Lamar 53, Houston Christian 75 [22] Lamar 65.3% -115 +14.2% LOSS
Northern Arizona 65, Montana State 76 [11] Montana State 78.6% -220 +12.8% WIN
IU Indianapolis 93, Cleveland State 101 [8] IU Indianapolis 57.0% +110 +11.2% LOSS
Idaho State 65, Sacramento State 83 [18] Idaho State 58.0% +105 +11.2% LOSS
New Orleans 78, SE Louisiana 82 [4] New Orleans 84.2% -320 +11.0% LOSS
Delaware State 59, South Carolina State 61 [2] South Carolina State 56.0% +110 +10.3% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northwestern State @ UT Rio Grande Valley Northwestern State 56.1% +425 +38.0% LOSS
Duke @ NC State NC State 54.5% +425 +36.3% LOSS
Coppin State @ Howard Coppin State 20.2% +1200 +12.9% LOSS