Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-03
Latest Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 28 Feb 27 Feb 26 Feb 25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
52
Final results
52
Correct picks
36
Incorrect picks
16
Pending
0
Accuracy
69.2%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (52)
Oregon (11-18) 54, Illinois #10 (22-7) 80 [26] 67-78 ✓ MAE: 7.3
O/U: 146.2		 Illinois (90.8%)
Georgetown (13-16) 69, St. John's #15 (23-6) 72 [3] 73-80 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET OVER 148.8		 St. John's (90.8%)
LSU (15-14) 74, Auburn (15-14) 88 [14] 78-81 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET OVER 155.5		 Auburn (88.5%)
Central Michigan (10-19) 64, Akron (24-5) 77 [13] 82-78 ✗ MAE: 9.7
O/U: 160.8		 Akron (84.4%)
Mississippi State (13-16) 74, Florida #7 (23-6) 108 [34] 74-95 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET OVER 160.5		 Florida (83.5%)
Mississippi Valley State (3-27) 64, Alcorn State (7-21) 67 [3] 59-66 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 138.5		 Alcorn State (82.0%)
Air Force (3-26) 60, Grand Canyon (18-11) 86 [26] 74-67 ✗ MAE: 9.5
O/U: 141.2		 Grand Canyon (81.6%)
Wake Forest (15-14) 70, Virginia #11 (25-4) 75 [5] 77-82 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET OVER 148.5		 Virginia (80.7%)
Syracuse (15-14) 62, Louisville #24 (20-9) 77 [15] 75-77 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET UNDER 158.5		 Louisville (80.7%)
George Mason (22-7) 65, VCU (22-7) 70 [5] 74-77 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET OVER 147.5		 VCU (80.5%)
Alabama #17 (22-7) 88, Georgia (20-9) 98 [10] 88-91 ✓ MAE: 3.5
O/U: 179.2		 Alabama (79.2%)
Boston College (10-19) 63, Virginia Tech (18-11) 72 [9] 69-73 ✓ MAE: 3.3
O/U: 142.8		 Virginia Tech (79.1%)
Stony Brook (17-13) 57, Towson (16-14) 69 [12] 66-68 ✓ MAE: 7.1
O/U: 135.0		 Towson (78.6%)
Texas Tech #16 (22-7) 65, TCU (19-10) 73 [8] 78-80 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET OVER 148.5		 Texas Tech (78.5%)
Northern Illinois (9-19) 76, Kent State (21-8) 102 [26] 77-76 ✗ MAE: 12.7
BET OVER 148.5		 Kent State (76.3%)
UL Monroe (4-27) 80, Old Dominion (11-20) 87 [7] 73-74 ✗ MAE: 10.2
BET UNDER 159.5		 Old Dominion (76.0%)
Hampton (13-17) 85, William & Mary (18-11) 94 [9] 72-76 ✗ MAE: 15.4
BET UNDER 154.2		 William & Mary (75.4%)
UCF (20-8) 104, Oklahoma State (17-12) 111 [7] 78-78 ✗ MAE: 29.2
BET UNDER 168.5		 UCF (74.8%)
Drexel (16-14) 51, Hofstra (20-10) 62 [11] 68-68 ✗ MAE: 11.9
BET OVER 133.2		 Hofstra (74.6%)
Nebraska #12 (25-4) 52, UCLA (19-10) 72 [20] 78-68 ✗ MAE: 14.6
BET OVER 143.5		 UCLA (74.4%)
Bryant (9-20) 83, New Hampshire (8-20) 88 [5] 62-66 ✗ MAE: 21.6
BET UNDER 135.5		 Bryant (73.2%) DOG
Toledo (16-13) 72, Miami (OH) #21 (29-0) 74 [2] 84-85 ✗ MAE: 11.8
BET OVER 162.5		 Miami (OH) (72.7%)
Lafayette (11-20) 77, Holy Cross (10-21) 82 [5] 67-63 ✗ MAE: 14.5
BET UNDER 141.5		 Lafayette (71.1%)
Clemson (21-8) 63, North Carolina #18 (23-6) 67 [4] 74-69 ✓ MAE: 6.8
O/U: 142.0		 North Carolina (70.9%)
San José State (8-21) 68, Fresno State (12-17) 82 [14] 69-67 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 148.8		 Fresno State (70.4%)
North Carolina A&T (11-17) 72, Campbell (13-17) 90 [18] 78-76 ✗ MAE: 9.9
O/U: 156.5		 Campbell (70.2%)
Eastern Michigan (10-19) 67, Buffalo (16-13) 72 [5] 74-73 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET OVER 145.0		 Buffalo (68.8%)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (12-17) 78, Jackson State (9-20) 81 [3] 80-73 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 152.5		 Jackson State (68.5%)
UAlbany (11-19) 56, Vermont (19-11) 69 [13] 69-68 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 138.5		 Vermont (68.1%)
NJIT (15-15) 52, UMBC (20-8) 91 [39] 66-71 ✗ MAE: 21.8
BET UNDER 140.5		 UMBC (66.2%)
San Diego State (19-9) 77, Boise State (18-11) 86 [9] 78-73 ✓ MAE: 7.2
BET OVER 144.2		 Boise State (64.1%)
Maine (8-22) 56, UMass Lowell (13-17) 67 [11] 68-67 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 140.5		 Maine (63.4%) DOG
BYU #19 (20-9) 68, Cincinnati (16-13) 90 [22] 79-72 ✗ MAE: 14.5
O/U: 152.5		 Cincinnati (63.3%)
Western Michigan (10-19) 71, Ball State (10-19) 74 [3] 73-68 ✓ MAE: 2.0
BET OVER 137.2		 Western Michigan (62.9%)
Kentucky (19-10) 85, Texas A&M (19-10) 96 [11] 81-82 ✗ MAE: 8.9
BET OVER 158.8		 Texas A&M (62.8%)
Missouri (20-9) 64, Oklahoma (15-14) 80 [16] 78-77 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET OVER 152.8		 Oklahoma (62.2%)
Alabama State (10-19) 64, Southern (13-16) 71 [7] 74-71 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 152.5		 Alabama State (62.1%)
Ohio (15-14) 82, Massachusetts (15-15) 94 [12] 76-79 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET UNDER 156.5		 Ohio (62.0%) DOG
Army (11-20) 55, Bucknell (9-22) 65 [10] 67-69 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 146.5		 Bucknell (61.7%)
Georgia State (10-21) 75, Louisiana (10-21) 84 [9] 66-60 ✗ MAE: 16.6
BET UNDER 132.5		 Louisiana (61.4%) DOG
Grambling (12-17) 63, Alabama A&M (16-13) 77 [14] 69-63 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 138.5		 Alabama A&M (61.0%)
Utah (10-19) 78, Colorado (16-13) 92 [14] 80-76 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET OVER 149.2		 Utah (60.5%)
Nevada (19-10) 73, Wyoming (16-13) 83 [10] 78-72 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET OVER 143.5		 Wyoming (59.4%) DOG
Xavier (14-15) 68, Seton Hall (19-10) 77 [9] 78-67 ✓ MAE: 1.0
O/U: 144.5		 Xavier (56.4%) DOG
Elon (14-16) 57, UNC Wilmington (25-5) 76 [19] 78-73 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 147.0		 Elon (55.6%) DOG
Ole Miss (12-17) 86, Vanderbilt #25 (22-7) 89 [3] 84-72 ✗ MAE: 9.8
O/U: 154.2		 Ole Miss (55.1%) DOG
West Virginia (17-12) 63, Kansas State (11-18) 65 [2] 76-67 ✓ MAE: 7.1
O/U: 143.2		 Kansas State (54.8%) DOG
Northeastern (6-22) 83, Monmouth (16-14) 89 [6] 78-71 ✗ MAE: 11.1
O/U: 149.0		 Northeastern (54.5%) DOG
Kansas #14 (21-8) 60, Arizona State (15-14) 70 [10] 81-73 ✗ MAE: 12.0
BET OVER 151.2		 Arizona State (54.4%) DOG
Richmond (15-14) 60, Dayton (20-9) 65 [5] 75-74 ✗ MAE: 12.4
BET OVER 146.8		 Richmond (54.3%) DOG
South Carolina (12-17) 59, Tennessee #22 (20-9) 78 [19] 79-72 ✓ MAE: 7.4
BET OVER 143.2		 South Carolina (52.5%) DOG
Utah State (24-5) 65, UNLV (15-14) 92 [27] 80-74 ✗ MAE: 16.9
BET UNDER 156.0		 UNLV (52.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
52
Final results
52
Correct picks
36
Incorrect picks
16
Pending
0
Accuracy
69.2%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
52
Avg Confidence
69.4%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0927
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
39
ML Win Rate
71.8%
ML Profit
$$400
ML ROI
10.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
10
Wins
3
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
30.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-130
ROI
-13.0%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$12
ROI
4.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
22
Wins
13
Losses
9
Pending
0
Win Rate
59.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$388
ROI
17.6%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
16
Wins
8
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$102
ROI
6.4%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
2
ATS Wins
1
ATS Losses
1
ATS Win Rate
50.0%
Spread Profit
$$-9
Spread ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
52
Avg Confidence
38.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1871
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
38
O/U Wins
14
O/U Losses
24
O/U Win Rate
36.8%
O/U Profit
$$-1127
O/U ROI
-29.7%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-15.6%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
6
Completed
6
Covered
4
Failed
2
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$163.60
ROI
27.3%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
6
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
6
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-600.00
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Nebraska #12 52 @ UCLA 72 UCLA (74.4%) UCLA -0.2 +9.6 -9.3 +20.0 COVERED
San José State 68 @ Fresno State 82 Fresno State (70.4%) Fresno State -7.2 +9.6 -2.4 +14.0 COVERED
North Carolina A&T 72 @ Campbell 90 Campbell (70.2%) Campbell -7.5 +9.4 -1.9 +18.0 COVERED
Clemson 63 @ North Carolina #18 67 North Carolina (70.9%) North Carolina -3.5 +8.8 -5.3 +4.0 COVERED
Oklahoma State 111 @ UCF 104 UCF (74.8%) UCF -8.5 +8.7 -0.2 -7.0 FAILED
Holy Cross 82 @ Lafayette 77 Lafayette (71.1%) Lafayette -3.5 +8.3 -4.8 -5.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
10
Wins
3
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
30.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-130
ROI
-13.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Ohio 82, Massachusetts 94 [12] Ohio 62.0% +130 +20.0% LOSS
Xavier 68, Seton Hall 77 [9] Xavier 56.4% +100 +8.6% LOSS
Elon 57, UNC Wilmington 76 [19] Elon 55.6% +170 +19.9% LOSS
Ole Miss 86, Vanderbilt 89 [3] Ole Miss 55.1% +250 +27.5% LOSS
West Virginia 63, Kansas State 65 [2] Kansas State 54.8% +105 +8.1% WIN
Northeastern 83, Monmouth 89 [6] Northeastern 54.5% +150 +15.9% LOSS
Kansas 60, Arizona State 70 [10] Arizona State 54.4% +180 +20.2% WIN
Richmond 60, Dayton 65 [5] Richmond 54.3% +180 +20.1% LOSS
South Carolina 59, Tennessee 78 [19] South Carolina 52.5% +300 +28.7% LOSS
Utah State 65, UNLV 92 [27] UNLV 52.5% +285 +27.7% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$12
ROI
4.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
LSU 74, Auburn 88 [14] Auburn 88.5% -400 +12.3% WIN
Alabama 88, Georgia 98 [10] Alabama 79.2% -125 +25.9% LOSS
Stony Brook 57, Towson 69 [12] Towson 78.6% -115 +27.6% WIN
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
22
Wins
13
Losses
9
Pending
0
Win Rate
59.1%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$388
ROI
17.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
South Carolina 59, Tennessee 78 [19] South Carolina 52.5% +300 +28.7% LOSS
Utah State 65, UNLV 92 [27] UNLV 52.5% +285 +27.7% WIN
Stony Brook 57, Towson 69 [12] Towson 78.6% -115 +27.6% WIN
Ole Miss 86, Vanderbilt 89 [3] Ole Miss 55.1% +250 +27.5% LOSS
Alabama 88, Georgia 98 [10] Alabama 79.2% -125 +25.9% LOSS
Nebraska 52, UCLA 72 [20] UCLA 74.4% -110 +24.4% WIN
Kansas 60, Arizona State 70 [10] Arizona State 54.4% +180 +20.2% WIN
Richmond 60, Dayton 65 [5] Richmond 54.3% +180 +20.1% LOSS
Ohio 82, Massachusetts 94 [12] Ohio 62.0% +130 +20.0% LOSS
Elon 57, UNC Wilmington 76 [19] Elon 55.6% +170 +19.9% LOSS
Northeastern 83, Monmouth 89 [6] Northeastern 54.5% +150 +15.9% LOSS
LSU 74, Auburn 88 [14] Auburn 88.5% -400 +12.3% WIN
Utah 78, Colorado 92 [14] Utah 60.5% -105 +11.5% LOSS
San Diego State 77, Boise State 86 [9] Boise State 64.1% -125 +10.8% WIN
Nevada 73, Wyoming 83 [10] Wyoming 59.4% -105 +10.5% WIN
Clemson 63, North Carolina 67 [4] North Carolina 70.9% -170 +10.3% WIN
BYU 68, Cincinnati 90 [22] Cincinnati 63.3% -130 +9.0% WIN
Xavier 68, Seton Hall 77 [9] Xavier 56.4% +100 +8.6% LOSS
Kentucky 85, Texas A&M 96 [11] Texas A&M 62.8% -130 +8.5% WIN
West Virginia 63, Kansas State 65 [2] Kansas State 54.8% +105 +8.1% WIN
Eastern Michigan 67, Buffalo 72 [5] Buffalo 68.8% -180 +7.0% WIN
Missouri 64, Oklahoma 80 [16] Oklahoma 62.2% -140 +6.0% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
16
Wins
8
Losses
8
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$102
ROI
6.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
South Carolina 59, Tennessee 78 [19] South Carolina 52.5% +300 +28.7% LOSS
Utah State 65, UNLV 92 [27] UNLV 52.5% +285 +27.7% WIN
Stony Brook 57, Towson 69 [12] Towson 78.6% -115 +27.6% WIN
Ole Miss 86, Vanderbilt 89 [3] Ole Miss 55.1% +250 +27.5% LOSS
Alabama 88, Georgia 98 [10] Alabama 79.2% -125 +25.9% LOSS
Nebraska 52, UCLA 72 [20] UCLA 74.4% -110 +24.4% WIN
Kansas 60, Arizona State 70 [10] Arizona State 54.4% +180 +20.2% WIN
Richmond 60, Dayton 65 [5] Richmond 54.3% +180 +20.1% LOSS
Ohio 82, Massachusetts 94 [12] Ohio 62.0% +130 +20.0% LOSS
Elon 57, UNC Wilmington 76 [19] Elon 55.6% +170 +19.9% LOSS
Northeastern 83, Monmouth 89 [6] Northeastern 54.5% +150 +15.9% LOSS
LSU 74, Auburn 88 [14] Auburn 88.5% -400 +12.3% WIN
Utah 78, Colorado 92 [14] Utah 60.5% -105 +11.5% LOSS
San Diego State 77, Boise State 86 [9] Boise State 64.1% -125 +10.8% WIN
Nevada 73, Wyoming 83 [10] Wyoming 59.4% -105 +10.5% WIN
Clemson 63, North Carolina 67 [4] North Carolina 70.9% -170 +10.3% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Mississippi State @ Florida Mississippi State 16.5% +2200 +12.3% LOSS
Grand Canyon @ Air Force Air Force 18.4% +1200 +11.1% LOSS
Tennessee @ South Carolina South Carolina 52.5% +300 +28.7% LOSS