Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-27
Latest Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 28 Feb 27 Feb 26 Feb 25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
21
Final results
21
Correct picks
12
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
57.1%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (21)
UL Monroe (4-26) 65, Troy (19-11) 80 [15] 71-84 ✓ MAE: 4.9
O/U: 156.0		 Troy (87.7%)
Louisiana (10-20) 58, Arkansas State (19-11) 81 [23] 67-71 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 146.5		 Arkansas State (87.2%)
Manhattan (12-17) 65, Saint Peter's (15-11) 75 [10] 67-71 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 145.8		 Saint Peter's (86.7%)
Kent State (21-7) 70, Akron (23-5) 92 [22] 77-83 ✗ MAE: 14.0
BET UNDER 164.8		 Akron (82.4%)
Yale (21-4) 69, Cornell (12-12) 72 [3] 80-85 ✗ MAE: 12.1
O/U: 165.2		 Yale (81.1%)
Western Michigan (10-18) 67, Miami (OH) #21 (28-0) 69 [2] 81-77 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 161.8		 Miami (OH) (80.2%)
James Madison (17-13) 68, Coastal Carolina (18-12) 69 [1] 73-70 ✓ MAE: 3.0
BET OVER 139.5		 James Madison (80.2%)
Brown (9-15) 62, Columbia (15-10) 80 [18] 73-72 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET OVER 140.0		 Brown (77.3%) DOG
Dartmouth (11-13) 71, Pennsylvania (13-11) 80 [9] 72-70 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 153.5		 Pennsylvania (75.7%)
George Washington (16-12) 66, Dayton (19-9) 68 [2] 74-73 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET UNDER 152.2		 Dayton (74.5%) DOG
Illinois #10 (22-6) 70, Michigan #3 (26-2) 84 [14] 84-74 ✓ MAE: 2.4
O/U: 157.8		 Illinois (74.3%) DOG
South Alabama (21-9) 55, Southern Miss (15-15) 68 [13] 67-67 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 143.2		 South Alabama (73.0%)
Quinnipiac (18-11) 76, Niagara (7-21) 78 [2] 68-69 ✗ MAE: 8.4
O/U: 136.0		 Quinnipiac (70.9%)
Merrimack (20-9) 62, Canisius (9-20) 67 [5] 64-61 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 131.5		 Merrimack (69.9%)
Mount St. Mary's (14-15) 69, Sacred Heart (12-18) 77 [8] 72-69 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 149.5		 Sacred Heart (68.2%)
Siena (19-10) 58, Fairfield (18-11) 72 [14] 67-71 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 144.5		 Siena (67.5%) DOG
Princeton (8-18) 56, Harvard (15-10) 58 [2] 62-67 ✓ MAE: 7.3
BET UNDER 131.2		 Harvard (66.5%)
Georgia State (10-20) 73, Old Dominion (10-20) 81 [8] 72-69 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 149.0		 Old Dominion (66.5%)
Marshall (19-11) 82, Georgia Southern (15-15) 99 [17] 74-76 ✗ MAE: 15.3
BET UNDER 167.0		 Georgia Southern (66.3%) DOG
App State (19-11) 57, Texas State (18-12) 60 [3] 70-62 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 135.5		 Texas State (62.8%) DOG
Rider (4-23) 58, Iona (16-13) 80 [22] 62-64 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 141.8		 Rider (55.9%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
21
Final results
21
Correct picks
12
Incorrect picks
9
Pending
0
Accuracy
57.1%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
21
Avg Confidence
74.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1998
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
4
ATS Wins
2
ATS Losses
2
ATS Win Rate
50.0%
Spread Profit
$$-18
Spread ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
21
Avg Confidence
45.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1720
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
17
O/U Wins
14
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
82.4%
O/U Profit
$$973
O/U ROI
57.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+30.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
7
Completed
7
Covered
2
Failed
5
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
28.6%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-318.20
ROI
-45.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
7
O/U Wins
5
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
71.4%
O/U Profit
$254.50
O/U ROI
36.4%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+19.0%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Akron 92 @ Kent State 70 Akron (82.4%) Akron -3.8 +9.6 +5.9 -22.0 COVERED
Coastal Carolina 69 @ James Madison 68 James Madison (80.2%) James Madison -5.5 +9.3 -3.8 -1.0 FAILED
Dartmouth 71 @ Pennsylvania 80 Pennsylvania (75.7%) Pennsylvania -7.2 +9.2 -1.9 +9.0 COVERED
Quinnipiac 76 @ Niagara 78 Quinnipiac (70.9%) Quinnipiac -8.5 +8.7 +0.2 +2.0 FAILED
Yale 69 @ Cornell 72 Yale (81.1%) Yale -3.2 +8.2 +5.0 +3.0 FAILED
Michigan #3 84 @ Illinois #10 70 Illinois (74.3%) DOG Illinois +1.5 +7.7 -9.2 -14.0 FAILED
Brown 62 @ Columbia 80 Brown (77.3%) DOG Brown +5.5 +6.0 -0.5 +18.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No positive EV moneyline bets identified today.