Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-25
Latest Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 28 Feb 27 Feb 26 Feb 25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
54
Final results
54
Correct picks
28
Incorrect picks
26
Pending
0
Accuracy
51.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
COMPLETED GAMES (54)
Mississippi State (13-14) 75, Alabama #17 (20-7) 100 [25] 71-85 MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 174.5
Alabama (93.5%)
Austin Peay (21-6) 88, Central Arkansas (18-11) 93 [5] 66-79 MAE: 17.6
BET UNDER 151.2
Austin Peay (89.2%)
Butler (15-13) 73, Villanova (21-6) 82 [9] 68-79 MAE: 4.2
O/U: 146.8
Villanova (89.0%)
San Diego (11-18) 82, Oregon State (15-14) 92 [10] 64-70 MAE: 19.9
BET UNDER 142.8
Oregon State (87.9%)
Kansas State (11-16) 70, Colorado (15-12) 79 [9] 68-74 MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 163.2
Colorado (87.0%)
Utah State (23-4) 72, San Diego State (18-8) 89 [17] 76-68 MAE: 12.7
BET UNDER 146.8
Utah State (83.1%) DOG
SMU (19-8) 69, California (19-8) 73 [4] 75-68 MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 161.5
SMU (81.1%)
Rice (11-16) 56, South Florida (19-8) 75 [19] 80-71 MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 157.5
South Florida (80.6%)
Texas (17-10) 71, Florida #7 (21-6) 84 [13] 81-75 MAE: 3.3
BET UNDER 159.8
Florida (80.5%)
Mercer (18-11) 74, Western Carolina (12-15) 78 [4] 80-73 MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 157.8
Mercer (80.4%)
UTSA (5-22) 81, East Carolina (9-18) 82 [1] 70-68 MAE: 12.3
BET UNDER 151.0
East Carolina (79.0%)
Lipscomb (18-11) 77, West Georgia (12-16) 84 [7] 87-74 MAE: 9.9
BET OVER 154.5
Lipscomb (77.8%)
Portland (12-17) 48, Gonzaga #9 (27-2) 89 [41] 60-88 MAE: 6.5
O/U: 149.8
Gonzaga (77.3%)
Washington State (12-17) 66, Loyola Marymount (14-15) 67 [1] 75-72 MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 151.2
Washington State (76.1%)
George Mason (21-6) 63, Saint Joseph's (17-10) 81 [18] 68-62 MAE: 11.9
BET UNDER 135.5
George Mason (75.5%) DOG
Evansville (6-22) 64, Belmont (25-4) 98 [34] 62-90 MAE: 4.9
O/U: 151.8
Belmont (74.4%)
UL Monroe (4-25) 54, South Alabama (20-9) 89 [35] 65-70 MAE: 15.2
BET UNDER 153.5
South Alabama (70.3%)
Georgia (19-8) 80, Vanderbilt #25 (21-6) 88 [8] 66-83 MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 164.2
Vanderbilt (68.8%)
Cleveland State (10-19) 70, Northern Kentucky (17-12) 81 [11] 83-68 MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 165.0
Northern Kentucky (68.8%)
Colgate (17-12) 69, Lafayette (9-20) 70 [1] 63-80 MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 146.2
Colgate (68.3%)
Ohio State (17-10) 57, Iowa (19-8) 74 [17] 64-79 MAE: 5.7
O/U: 141.5
Iowa (67.5%)
Texas A&M (19-8) 84, Arkansas #20 (20-7) 99 [15] 75-86 MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 170.2
Arkansas (67.0%)
Detroit Mercy (14-13) 62, Robert Morris (19-10) 73 [11] 72-82 MAE: 9.5
BET OVER 150.5
Robert Morris (66.4%)
Indiana State (10-19) 55, Southern Illinois (14-15) 66 [11] 69-74 MAE: 11.1
BET UNDER 147.8
Southern Illinois (66.2%)
The Citadel (9-20) 51, Furman (18-11) 72 [21] 65-79 MAE: 10.3
O/U: 142.0
Furman (66.0%)
Drake (12-17) 71, Valparaiso (16-13) 74 [3] 68-72 MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 147.5
Valparaiso (65.6%)
Georgia Southern (15-14) 66, James Madison (16-13) 82 [16] 74-74 MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 153.2
James Madison (65.4%)
Holy Cross (10-19) 63, Boston University (13-16) 78 [15] 66-72 MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 142.2
Boston University (65.0%)
American University (16-13) 73, Lehigh (13-16) 78 [5] 66-69 MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 140.2
American University (65.0%)
Pepperdine (8-21) 80, Seattle U (17-12) 87 [7] 69-65 MAE: 16.6
BET UNDER 146.5
Seattle U (64.8%)
Santa Clara (23-6) 67, Saint Mary's (25-4) 86 [19] 66-75 MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 153.5
Saint Mary's (63.3%)
East Tennessee State (21-8) 69, Wofford (18-11) 72 [3] 68-80 MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 150.2
East Tennessee State (63.0%)
Duquesne (16-11) 56, Davidson (16-11) 67 [11] 66-76 MAE: 10.7
O/U: 142.5
Duquesne (62.9%)
Xavier (13-14) 84, Providence (12-15) 94 [10] 79-77 MAE: 10.9
BET UNDER 171.2
Xavier (62.6%) DOG
Tulane (17-10) 56, Tulsa (22-6) 90 [34] 71-76 MAE: 19.5
BET UNDER 154.8
Tulane (62.1%) DOG
Creighton (14-14) 71, DePaul (14-13) 72 [1] 63-73 MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 142.5
Creighton (61.9%)
Wisconsin (19-8) 71, Oregon (10-17) 85 [14] 71-74 MAE: 5.6
BET UNDER 152.0
Oregon (61.7%) DOG
Youngstown State (15-14) 65, Milwaukee (11-19) 78 [13] 69-77 MAE: 2.2
O/U: 147.8
Milwaukee (61.5%) DOG
Army (11-19) 73, Bucknell (9-21) 75 [2] 67-74 MAE: 4.5
O/U: 142.8
Army (61.4%)
Loyola Maryland (11-18) 51, Navy (23-6) 78 [27] 71-69 MAE: 12.6
BET UNDER 146.5
Navy (61.1%)
Northern Iowa (18-11) 69, Illinois State (18-11) 71 [2] 57-67 MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 131.0
Northern Iowa (60.0%)
St. John's #15 (22-5) 40, UConn #6 (25-3) 72 [32] 77-72 MAE: 18.4
BET OVER 145.8
St. John's (59.5%) DOG
UNLV (14-13) 67, Grand Canyon (17-10) 80 [13] 70-72 MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 152.2
UNLV (58.6%) DOG
Eastern Kentucky (11-18) 79, Queens University (17-12) 96 [17] 72-80 MAE: 12.5
BET UNDER 163.5
Eastern Kentucky (56.4%) DOG
South Carolina State (7-19) 83, Morgan State (11-14) 90 [7] 76-71 MAE: 12.9
BET UNDER 154.5
Morgan State (55.3%)
North Texas (16-12) 79, Charlotte (14-13) 80 [1] 64-72 MAE: 11.3
O/U: 135.0
Charlotte (53.9%) DOG
Maryland (11-16) 61, Nebraska #12 (23-4) 74 [13] 69-74 MAE: 4.1
BET OVER 141.0
Maryland (53.5%) DOG
Pittsburgh (10-17) 67, Stanford (16-11) 75 [8] 68-70 MAE: 3.2
O/U: 137.8
Pittsburgh (53.3%) DOG
Ole Miss (11-16) 99, LSU (14-13) 106 [7] 66-73 MAE: 33.1
BET UNDER 148.8
Ole Miss (53.1%)
Purdue Fort Wayne (16-13) 70, Wright State (18-11) 74 [4] 70-77 MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 151.5
Purdue Fort Wayne (53.1%) DOG
Wake Forest (14-13) 67, Boston College (9-18) 68 [1] 67-66 MAE: 0.9
BET UNDER 144.5
Wake Forest (51.3%)
IU Indianapolis (7-22) 74, Oakland (15-14) 86 [12] 76-79 MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 167.5
IU Indianapolis (51.1%) DOG
Omaha (15-14) 72, South Dakota (14-15) 89 [17] 70-76 MAE: 7.2
BET UNDER 153.8
South Dakota (50.9%) DOG
Bellarmine (11-17) 68, North Alabama (8-19) 73 [5] 67-69 MAE: 2.4
BET UNDER 147.2
Bellarmine (50.6%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
54
Final results
54
Correct picks
28
Incorrect picks
26
Pending
0
Accuracy
51.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
67.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1561
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
50
ML Win Rate
52.0%
ML Profit
$$-1290
ML ROI
-25.8%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
10
Wins
3
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
30.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-320
ROI
-32.0%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
10
Wins
3
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
30.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-587
ROI
-58.7%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
22
Wins
8
Losses
14
Pending
0
Win Rate
36.4%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-862
ROI
-39.2%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
19
Wins
5
Losses
14
Pending
0
Win Rate
26.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-1007
ROI
-53.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
34
ATS Wins
12
ATS Losses
22
ATS Win Rate
35.3%
Spread Profit
$$-1109
Spread ROI
-32.6%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-17.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
54
Avg Confidence
53.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1896
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
44
O/U Wins
23
O/U Losses
21
O/U Win Rate
52.3%
O/U Profit
$$-9
O/U ROI
-0.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-0.1%
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
10
Wins
3
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
30.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-320
ROI
-32.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Xavier 84, Providence 94 [10] Xavier 62.6% +240 +34.2% LOSS
Tulane 56, Tulsa 90 [34] Tulane 62.1% +165 +25.7% LOSS
Wisconsin 71, Oregon 85 [14] Oregon 61.7% +175 +26.8% WIN
Youngstown State 65, Milwaukee 78 [13] Milwaukee 61.5% +105 +14.8% WIN
St. John's 40, UConn 72 [32] St. John's 59.5% +175 +24.6% LOSS
UNLV 67, Grand Canyon 80 [13] UNLV 58.6% +270 +32.7% LOSS
Maryland 61, Nebraska 74 [13] Maryland 53.5% +1050 +45.2% LOSS
Pittsburgh 67, Stanford 75 [8] Pittsburgh 53.3% +300 +29.5% LOSS
IU Indianapolis 74, Oakland 86 [12] IU Indianapolis 51.1% +205 +19.5% LOSS
Omaha 72, South Dakota 89 [17] South Dakota 50.9% +100 +3.1% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
10
Wins
3
Losses
7
Pending
0
Win Rate
30.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-587
ROI
-58.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Austin Peay 88, Central Arkansas 93 [5] Austin Peay 89.2% -170 +28.5% LOSS
San Diego 82, Oregon State 92 [10] Oregon State 87.9% -300 +15.5% WIN
Kansas State 70, Colorado 79 [9] Colorado 87.0% -340 +12.9% WIN
Utah State 72, San Diego State 89 [17] Utah State 83.1% -105 +34.2% LOSS
SMU 69, California 73 [4] SMU 81.1% -165 +21.2% LOSS
Mercer 74, Western Carolina 78 [4] Mercer 80.4% -130 +26.1% LOSS
UTSA 81, East Carolina 82 [1] East Carolina 79.0% -200 +14.8% WIN
Lipscomb 77, West Georgia 84 [7] Lipscomb 77.8% -225 +11.5% LOSS
Washington State 66, Loyola Marymount 67 [1] Washington State 76.1% -135 +20.9% LOSS
George Mason 63, Saint Joseph's 81 [18] George Mason 75.5% -115 +24.9% LOSS
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
22
Wins
8
Losses
14
Pending
0
Win Rate
36.4%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-862
ROI
-39.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Maryland 61, Nebraska 74 [13] Maryland 53.5% +1050 +45.2% LOSS
Xavier 84, Providence 94 [10] Xavier 62.6% +240 +34.2% LOSS
Utah State 72, San Diego State 89 [17] Utah State 83.1% -105 +34.2% LOSS
UNLV 67, Grand Canyon 80 [13] UNLV 58.6% +270 +32.7% LOSS
Pittsburgh 67, Stanford 75 [8] Pittsburgh 53.3% +300 +29.5% LOSS
Austin Peay 88, Central Arkansas 93 [5] Austin Peay 89.2% -170 +28.5% LOSS
Wisconsin 71, Oregon 85 [14] Oregon 61.7% +175 +26.8% WIN
Mercer 74, Western Carolina 78 [4] Mercer 80.4% -130 +26.1% LOSS
Tulane 56, Tulsa 90 [34] Tulane 62.1% +165 +25.7% LOSS
George Mason 63, Saint Joseph's 81 [18] George Mason 75.5% -115 +24.9% LOSS
St. John's 40, UConn 72 [32] St. John's 59.5% +175 +24.6% LOSS
SMU 69, California 73 [4] SMU 81.1% -165 +21.2% LOSS
Washington State 66, Loyola Marymount 67 [1] Washington State 76.1% -135 +20.9% LOSS
IU Indianapolis 74, Oakland 86 [12] IU Indianapolis 51.1% +205 +19.5% LOSS
San Diego 82, Oregon State 92 [10] Oregon State 87.9% -300 +15.5% WIN
UTSA 81, East Carolina 82 [1] East Carolina 79.0% -200 +14.8% WIN
Youngstown State 65, Milwaukee 78 [13] Milwaukee 61.5% +105 +14.8% WIN
Kansas State 70, Colorado 79 [9] Colorado 87.0% -340 +12.9% WIN
Lipscomb 77, West Georgia 84 [7] Lipscomb 77.8% -225 +11.5% LOSS
Texas 71, Florida 84 [13] Florida 80.5% -300 +8.1% WIN
Butler 73, Villanova 82 [9] Villanova 89.0% -600 +7.2% WIN
South Carolina State 83, Morgan State 90 [7] Morgan State 55.3% -105 +6.4% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
19
Wins
5
Losses
14
Pending
0
Win Rate
26.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-1007
ROI
-53.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Maryland 61, Nebraska 74 [13] Maryland 53.5% +1050 +45.2% LOSS
Xavier 84, Providence 94 [10] Xavier 62.6% +240 +34.2% LOSS
Utah State 72, San Diego State 89 [17] Utah State 83.1% -105 +34.2% LOSS
UNLV 67, Grand Canyon 80 [13] UNLV 58.6% +270 +32.7% LOSS
Pittsburgh 67, Stanford 75 [8] Pittsburgh 53.3% +300 +29.5% LOSS
Austin Peay 88, Central Arkansas 93 [5] Austin Peay 89.2% -170 +28.5% LOSS
Wisconsin 71, Oregon 85 [14] Oregon 61.7% +175 +26.8% WIN
Mercer 74, Western Carolina 78 [4] Mercer 80.4% -130 +26.1% LOSS
Tulane 56, Tulsa 90 [34] Tulane 62.1% +165 +25.7% LOSS
George Mason 63, Saint Joseph's 81 [18] George Mason 75.5% -115 +24.9% LOSS
St. John's 40, UConn 72 [32] St. John's 59.5% +175 +24.6% LOSS
SMU 69, California 73 [4] SMU 81.1% -165 +21.2% LOSS
Washington State 66, Loyola Marymount 67 [1] Washington State 76.1% -135 +20.9% LOSS
IU Indianapolis 74, Oakland 86 [12] IU Indianapolis 51.1% +205 +19.5% LOSS
San Diego 82, Oregon State 92 [10] Oregon State 87.9% -300 +15.5% WIN
UTSA 81, East Carolina 82 [1] East Carolina 79.0% -200 +14.8% WIN
Youngstown State 65, Milwaukee 78 [13] Milwaukee 61.5% +105 +14.8% WIN
Kansas State 70, Colorado 79 [9] Colorado 87.0% -340 +12.9% WIN
Lipscomb 77, West Georgia 84 [7] Lipscomb 77.8% -225 +11.5% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Maryland @ Nebraska Maryland 53.5% +1050 +45.2% LOSS
Evansville @ Belmont Evansville 25.6% +1600 +20.0% LOSS
The Citadel @ Furman The Citadel 34.0% +800 +23.5% LOSS