Test Predictions Recap
2026-02-26
Latest Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 28 Feb 27 Feb 26 Feb 25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
57
Final results
57
Correct picks
34
Incorrect picks
23
Pending
0
Accuracy
59.6%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (57)
VMI (6-23) 61, Samford (16-13) 80 [19] 69-80 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 154.5		 Samford (89.8%)
Temple (15-12) 73, Florida Atlantic (15-13) 77 [4] 74-71 ✓ MAE: 3.4
O/U: 145.8		 Florida Atlantic (87.1%)
Northeastern (6-20) 77, William & Mary (16-11) 84 [7] 75-78 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 164.5		 William & Mary (87.1%)
Tarleton State (14-14) 72, Utah Valley (20-7) 79 [7] 69-76 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 141.5		 Utah Valley (87.0%)
North Carolina A&T (11-15) 65, UNC Wilmington (24-4) 88 [23] 67-72 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET UNDER 146.5		 UNC Wilmington (86.9%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-20) 72, UC San Diego (19-9) 84 [12] 67-72 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET UNDER 150.5		 UC San Diego (86.5%)
Northern Arizona (10-18) 58, Idaho (15-13) 78 [20] 70-73 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 147.2		 Idaho (85.8%)
Western Illinois (5-24) 47, SIU Edwardsville (17-12) 67 [20] 60-65 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 135.5		 SIU Edwardsville (83.4%)
South Carolina Upstate (12-17) 59, Radford (15-14) 71 [12] 76-78 ✗ MAE: 11.9
O/U: 154.5		 Radford (82.8%)
Chicago State (6-22) 56, Long Island University (19-10) 73 [17] 62-66 ✓ MAE: 6.5
BET UNDER 139.5		 Long Island University (82.8%)
Alcorn State (7-19) 87, Texas Southern (10-16) 92 [5] 69-69 ✗ MAE: 20.4
BET UNDER 149.5		 Texas Southern (81.9%)
Stony Brook (17-11) 69, Monmouth (14-14) 82 [13] 68-66 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 143.5		 Monmouth (80.9%)
Southeast Missouri State (18-11) 71, Tennessee State (19-9) 79 [8] 77-75 ✓ MAE: 3.1
BET UNDER 155.5		 Southeast Missouri State (80.6%)
Northern Colorado (18-10) 72, Eastern Washington (11-17) 82 [10] 76-76 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 155.8		 Northern Colorado (80.1%) DOG
Fairleigh Dickinson (11-18) 59, Le Moyne (14-15) 76 [17] 69-67 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 139.5		 Le Moyne (80.1%)
Liberty (23-4) 65, Kennesaw State (16-11) 74 [9] 71-76 ✓ MAE: 3.5
BET UNDER 153.5		 Liberty (78.8%)
Memphis (12-15) 82, Wichita State (18-10) 88 [6] 67-70 ✗ MAE: 16.5
BET UNDER 147.5		 Wichita State (77.8%) DOG
Presbyterian (14-15) 73, High Point (26-4) 79 [6] 78-75 ✓ MAE: 1.3
O/U: 151.5		 High Point (77.7%)
Kansas City (4-24) 59, South Dakota State (13-16) 73 [14] 72-69 ✓ MAE: 5.4
BET UNDER 147.5		 South Dakota State (77.6%)
Florida Gulf Coast (14-15) 70, North Florida (6-23) 76 [6] 80-84 ✗ MAE: 8.5
O/U: 161.5		 Florida Gulf Coast (77.3%)
Cal State Northridge (18-10) 67, UC Irvine (18-10) 68 [1] 74-79 ✗ MAE: 8.9
O/U: 154.8		 UC Irvine (76.2%) DOG
Elon (14-14) 56, Towson (14-14) 58 [2] 71-72 ✗ MAE: 14.3
O/U: 143.8		 Towson (76.2%)
New Mexico State (13-13) 70, Western Kentucky (16-11) 93 [23] 70-74 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 151.5		 New Mexico State (76.0%) DOG
North Dakota State (23-6) 62, St. Thomas-Minnesota (21-8) 84 [22] 78-81 ✗ MAE: 9.3
BET OVER 154.5		 North Dakota State (75.7%) DOG
UC Riverside (9-20) 59, UC Santa Barbara (17-11) 70 [11] 68-71 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 143.5		 UC Santa Barbara (75.7%)
UTEP (10-17) 67, Middle Tennessee (13-14) 77 [10] 66-69 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 139.5		 UTEP (75.1%) DOG
Chattanooga (12-17) 80, UNC Greensboro (12-17) 85 [5] 72-74 ✗ MAE: 9.6
BET UNDER 156.5		 UNC Greensboro (74.9%) DOG
Winthrop (20-9) 84, Charleston Southern (13-16) 86 [2] 79-82 ✓ MAE: 4.6
O/U: 162.5		 Winthrop (73.9%)
Tennessee Tech (13-16) 49, UT Martin (20-9) 64 [15] 62-66 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 135.5		 UT Martin (73.5%)
Missouri State (13-14) 70, Louisiana Tech (15-12) 72 [2] 69-65 ✓ MAE: 4.0
BET UNDER 137.0		 Louisiana Tech (73.2%)
UMass Lowell (13-15) 64, Vermont (18-11) 66 [2] 68-71 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 146.5		 UMass Lowell (72.9%) DOG
Portland State (18-8) 69, Montana State (15-13) 84 [15] 69-75 ✓ MAE: 4.5
BET OVER 140.0		 Portland State (72.5%) DOG
Delaware (9-18) 70, Jacksonville State (13-14) 80 [10] 61-66 ✗ MAE: 11.7
BET UNDER 133.8		 Jacksonville State (72.2%)
Abilene Christian (13-14) 81, Utah Tech (17-12) 85 [4] 70-69 ✗ MAE: 13.5
O/U: 139.2		 Utah Tech (72.0%)
Florida International (13-14) 67, Sam Houston (19-8) 100 [33] 76-75 ✗ MAE: 17.0
BET UNDER 164.5		 Sam Houston (72.0%)
Lindenwood (16-13) 67, Eastern Illinois (11-18) 71 [4] 67-68 ✓ MAE: 2.4
BET UNDER 145.2		 Lindenwood (71.9%)
UT Arlington (15-12) 56, California Baptist (19-8) 68 [12] 69-68 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET OVER 134.2		 California Baptist (71.7%)
Purdue #8 (22-5) 74, Michigan State #13 (22-5) 76 [2] 70-67 ✓ MAE: 6.3
BET UNDER 142.5		 Purdue (71.6%)
Hampton (12-16) 71, Charleston (19-10) 85 [14] 71-73 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET OVER 141.5		 Charleston (70.2%)
Campbell (13-15) 60, Drexel (15-14) 65 [5] 73-69 ✗ MAE: 8.5
O/U: 141.5		 Campbell (70.2%) DOG
UAlbany (10-18) 59, Maine (7-21) 70 [11] 64-66 ✓ MAE: 6.9
BET UNDER 135.5		 Maine (70.2%) DOG
Gardner-Webb (3-26) 71, UNC Asheville (13-15) 77 [6] 69-63 ✓ MAE: 7.9
BET UNDER 145.5		 UNC Asheville (69.9%)
UC Davis (17-11) 73, Hawai'i (19-7) 77 [4] 70-76 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 150.2		 Hawai'i (67.6%)
Bryant (8-19) 58, UMBC (18-8) 70 [12] 61-63 ✓ MAE: 4.8
BET UNDER 139.5		 Bryant (66.5%) DOG
Sacramento State (9-18) 73, Montana (14-14) 81 [8] 74-75 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 162.5		 Sacramento State (65.4%) DOG
Denver (14-16) 80, Oral Roberts (7-22) 102 [22] 72-75 ✗ MAE: 17.4
BET UNDER 155.5		 Denver (63.8%)
Little Rock (11-18) 70, Morehead State (18-12) 76 [6] 68-72 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 140.5		 Morehead State (62.9%) DOG
Grambling (12-15) 71, Bethune-Cookman (15-13) 76 [5] 71-73 ✓ MAE: 3.7
BET OVER 141.5		 Bethune-Cookman (62.6%)
Rhode Island (15-12) 76, St. Bonaventure (14-13) 94 [18] 72-70 ✗ MAE: 14.4
BET UNDER 145.2		 St. Bonaventure (62.4%)
Mercyhurst (14-15) 78, Central Connecticut (16-11) 80 [2] 62-68 ✗ MAE: 14.1
BET UNDER 138.5		 Mercyhurst (62.3%) DOG
Long Beach State (8-20) 92, Cal Poly (12-16) 102 [10] 72-82 ✗ MAE: 19.9
BET UNDER 160.2		 Long Beach State (61.5%) DOG
New Haven (13-16) 62, Wagner (11-16) 65 [3] 61-63 ✓ MAE: 1.6
BET UNDER 130.5		 New Haven (60.1%) DOG
New Hampshire (8-18) 63, Binghamton (6-23) 65 [2] 61-67 ✓ MAE: 2.1
BET UNDER 141.5		 New Hampshire (60.0%)
Stetson (10-19) 85, Jacksonville (10-19) 89 [4] 72-69 ✗ MAE: 16.5
O/U: 139.5		 Stetson (60.0%) DOG
Jackson State (9-18) 76, Prairie View A&M (11-17) 85 [9] 75-76 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 164.5		 Jackson State (58.9%) DOG
St. Francis (PA) (7-22) 77, Stonehill (10-19) 103 [26] 66-65 ✗ MAE: 24.9
BET UNDER 140.5		 St. Francis (PA) (58.0%) DOG
Southern (13-14) 71, Florida A&M (10-15) 82 [11] 70-72 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 149.5		 Florida A&M (57.9%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
57
Final results
57
Correct picks
34
Incorrect picks
23
Pending
0
Accuracy
59.6%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
57
Avg Confidence
73.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1516
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
4
ML Win Rate
50.0%
ML Profit
$$-112
ML ROI
-28.1%
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-51
ROI
-25.6%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-151
ROI
-50.4%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-51
ROI
-25.6%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
12
ATS Wins
5
ATS Losses
7
ATS Win Rate
41.7%
Spread Profit
$$-246
Spread ROI
-20.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-10.7%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
57
Avg Confidence
42.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1858
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
46
O/U Wins
25
O/U Losses
21
O/U Win Rate
54.3%
O/U Profit
$$172
O/U ROI
3.8%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+1.9%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
12
Completed
12
Covered
5
Failed
7
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
41.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-245.50
ROI
-20.5%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
12
O/U Wins
3
O/U Losses
9
O/U Win Rate
25.0%
O/U Profit
$-627.30
O/U ROI
-52.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-27.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Michigan State #13 76 @ Purdue #8 74 Purdue (71.6%) Purdue -7.5 +10.3 -2.8 -2.0 FAILED
Florida Gulf Coast 70 @ North Florida 76 Florida Gulf Coast (77.3%) Florida Gulf Coast -5.5 +9.5 +4.0 +6.0 FAILED
Winthrop 84 @ Charleston Southern 86 Winthrop (73.9%) Winthrop -6.5 +9.5 +3.0 +2.0 FAILED
UT Arlington 56 @ California Baptist 68 California Baptist (71.7%) California Baptist -6.5 +8.4 -1.9 +12.0 COVERED
Alcorn State 87 @ Texas Southern 92 Texas Southern (81.9%) Texas Southern -7.5 +7.9 -0.4 +5.0 FAILED
Florida International 67 @ Sam Houston 100 Sam Houston (72.0%) Sam Houston -6.5 +7.6 -1.1 +33.0 COVERED
Temple 73 @ Florida Atlantic 77 Florida Atlantic (87.1%) Florida Atlantic -4.5 +7.4 -2.9 +4.0 FAILED
Stony Brook 69 @ Monmouth 82 Monmouth (80.9%) Monmouth -4.5 +7.2 -2.7 +13.0 COVERED
Fairleigh Dickinson 59 @ Le Moyne 76 Le Moyne (80.1%) Le Moyne -5.5 +7.0 -1.5 +17.0 COVERED
Liberty 65 @ Kennesaw State 74 Liberty (78.8%) Liberty -1.8 +6.6 +4.9 +9.0 FAILED
Charleston 85 @ Hampton 71 Charleston (70.2%) Charleston -4.5 +6.4 +1.9 -14.0 COVERED
Missouri State 70 @ Louisiana Tech 72 Louisiana Tech (73.2%) Louisiana Tech -2.5 +6.1 -3.6 +2.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-51
ROI
-25.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southeast Missouri State 71, Tennessee State 79 [8] Southeast Missouri State 80.6% -185 +18.4% LOSS
Fairleigh Dickinson 59, Le Moyne 76 [17] Le Moyne 80.1% -205 +15.6% WIN
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-151
ROI
-50.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southeast Missouri State 71, Tennessee State 79 [8] Southeast Missouri State 80.6% -185 +18.4% LOSS
Fairleigh Dickinson 59, Le Moyne 76 [17] Le Moyne 80.1% -205 +15.6% WIN
Winthrop 84, Charleston Southern 86 [2] Winthrop 73.9% -238 +6.4% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-51
ROI
-25.6%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Southeast Missouri State 71, Tennessee State 79 [8] Southeast Missouri State 80.6% -185 +18.4% LOSS
Fairleigh Dickinson 59, Le Moyne 76 [17] Le Moyne 80.1% -205 +15.6% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-151
ROI
-50.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State Southeast Missouri State 80.6% -185 +18.4% LOSS
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Le Moyne Le Moyne 80.1% -205 +15.6% WIN
Winthrop @ Charleston Southern Winthrop 73.9% -238 +6.4% LOSS