Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-01
Latest Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 28 Feb 27 Feb 26 Feb 25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
23
Final results
23
Correct picks
13
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
56.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (23)
Tulane (17-11) 62, South Florida (20-8) 90 [28] 76-81 ✗ MAE: 11.7
O/U: 155.5		 South Florida (90.8%)
Rider (4-24) 61, Siena (19-11) 76 [15] 60-67 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET UNDER 137.5		 Siena (87.8%)
Charlotte (15-13) 76, Florida Atlantic (16-13) 77 [1] 75-74 ✓ MAE: 2.2
O/U: 147.8		 Florida Atlantic (86.7%)
Indiana (17-11) 64, Michigan State #13 (23-5) 77 [13] 69-74 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET UNDER 144.8		 Michigan State (78.8%)
Memphis (12-16) 68, East Carolina (10-18) 84 [16] 68-71 ✓ MAE: 6.8
BET UNDER 150.5		 Memphis (78.8%)
Belmont (26-4) 74, Illinois State (19-11) 81 [7] 76-73 ✓ MAE: 4.8
O/U: 150.8		 Belmont (78.3%) DOG
Drake (12-18) 53, Northern Iowa (18-12) 75 [22] 64-66 ✗ MAE: 12.4
BET UNDER 139.2		 Northern Iowa (77.2%)
Temple (15-13) 74, Rice (11-17) 80 [6] 71-72 ✓ MAE: 5.6
O/U: 142.0		 Temple (75.8%)
UIC (17-13) 63, Indiana State (10-20) 79 [16] 71-72 ✓ MAE: 7.7
O/U: 143.2		 UIC (75.4%)
Marquette (10-18) 51, DePaul (15-13) 62 [11] 66-70 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET UNDER 142.5		 DePaul (75.4%) DOG
Canisius (10-20) 63, Quinnipiac (18-12) 67 [4] 68-68 ✓ MAE: 3.3
O/U: 138.2		 Quinnipiac (75.0%)
Maryland (11-17) 65, Rutgers (11-17) 69 [4] 65-68 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET UNDER 141.5		 Rutgers (74.3%) DOG
Murray State (20-10) 78, Bradley (19-11) 87 [9] 74-81 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET UNDER 158.5		 Murray State (74.0%) DOG
Evansville (7-23) 67, Southern Illinois (15-15) 81 [14] 64-64 ✗ MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 138.5		 Southern Illinois (73.8%)
UAB (18-10) 58, North Texas (16-13) 62 [4] 72-70 ✗ MAE: 11.2
O/U: 142.0		 UAB (73.7%)
Marist (18-10) 56, Saint Peter's (16-11) 63 [7] 62-63 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 133.8		 Saint Peter's (72.4%) DOG
UNC Wilmington (25-4) 76, Charleston (20-10) 79 [3] 75-74 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 144.5		 UNC Wilmington (71.1%)
La Salle (8-20) 64, Davidson (17-11) 71 [7] 62-65 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 134.5		 Davidson (69.7%)
Niagara (8-21) 66, Merrimack (20-10) 73 [7] 63-63 ✓ MAE: 6.7
O/U: 126.8		 Merrimack (66.2%)
Purdue #8 (22-6) 74, Ohio State (17-11) 82 [8] 78-71 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 150.5		 Ohio State (62.5%) DOG
Fairfield (19-11) 47, Mount St. Mary's (14-16) 69 [22] 69-70 ✗ MAE: 11.4
BET UNDER 144.8		 Fairfield (61.4%)
UTSA (5-23) 67, Wichita State (19-10) 84 [17] 82-64 ✓ MAE: 2.6
BET UNDER 149.5		 UTSA (58.4%) DOG
Manhattan (12-18) 65, Iona (17-13) 69 [4] 74-65 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET UNDER 150.5		 Manhattan (55.3%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
23
Final results
23
Correct picks
13
Incorrect picks
10
Pending
0
Accuracy
56.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
23
Avg Confidence
73.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2358
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
1
ML Win Rate
0.0%
ML Profit
$$-100
ML ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
3
ATS Wins
2
ATS Losses
1
ATS Win Rate
66.7%
Spread Profit
$$82
Spread ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
23
Avg Confidence
46.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3638
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
15
O/U Wins
9
O/U Losses
6
O/U Win Rate
60.0%
O/U Profit
$$218
O/U ROI
14.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+7.6%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
7
Completed
7
Covered
3
Failed
4
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
42.9%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-127.30
ROI
-18.2%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
7
O/U Wins
4
O/U Losses
3
O/U Win Rate
57.1%
O/U Profit
$63.60
O/U ROI
9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.7%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Southern Illinois 81 @ Evansville 67 Southern Illinois (73.8%) Southern Illinois -8.5 +8.7 +0.2 -14.0 COVERED
Charlotte 76 @ Florida Atlantic 77 Florida Atlantic (86.7%) Florida Atlantic -7.5 +8.6 -1.1 +1.0 FAILED
Memphis 68 @ East Carolina 84 Memphis (78.8%) Memphis -5.2 +8.0 +2.8 +16.0 FAILED
Michigan State #13 77 @ Indiana 64 Michigan State (78.8%) Michigan State -3.2 +7.8 +4.6 -13.0 COVERED
Quinnipiac 67 @ Canisius 63 Quinnipiac (75.0%) Quinnipiac -7.5 +7.7 +0.2 -4.0 FAILED
North Texas 62 @ UAB 58 UAB (73.7%) UAB -4.8 +7.2 -2.4 -4.0 FAILED
Northern Iowa 75 @ Drake 53 Northern Iowa (77.2%) Northern Iowa -3.8 +6.4 +2.7 -22.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UAB 58, North Texas 62 [4] UAB 73.7% -218 +7.9% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
North Texas @ UAB UAB 73.7% -218 +7.9% LOSS