Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-04
Latest Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 28 Feb 27 Feb 26 Feb 25
All Games Summary
Total Picks
37
Final results
37
Correct picks
24
Incorrect picks
13
Pending
0
Accuracy
64.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (37)
Loyola Chicago (7-22) 65, Saint Louis #25 (26-3) 79 [14] 65-87 ✓ MAE: 4.2
BET UNDER 155.5		 Saint Louis (95.3%)
Maryland (11-18) 45, Wisconsin (20-9) 78 [33] 70-76 ✗ MAE: 13.7
BET UNDER 154.0		 Wisconsin (86.0%)
Baylor (15-14) 64, Houston #7 (24-5) 77 [13] 68-74 ✓ MAE: 3.4
O/U: 142.2		 Houston (86.0%)
Chicago State (6-24) 75, Long Island University (21-10) 79 [4] 62-70 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET UNDER 139.5		 Long Island University (77.4%)
South Carolina Upstate (13-18) 64, Gardner-Webb (3-28) 65 [1] 69-74 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 145.5		 South Carolina Upstate (76.6%)
St. Bonaventure (15-14) 82, George Washington (16-13) 91 [9] 73-76 ✗ MAE: 12.1
BET UNDER 159.0		 George Washington (75.0%)
Minnesota (14-15) 47, Indiana (17-12) 77 [30] 73-70 ✗ MAE: 16.0
BET OVER 136.8		 Indiana (72.1%)
New Mexico (22-7) 74, Colorado State (19-10) 82 [8] 68-73 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 150.0		 New Mexico (72.0%)
Rice (12-17) 58, North Texas (17-13) 62 [4] 65-71 ✓ MAE: 7.9
O/U: 137.8		 North Texas (71.5%)
Central Connecticut (18-11) 60, Wagner (13-16) 70 [10] 66-65 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 138.5		 Central Connecticut (66.7%)
Le Moyne (15-16) 71, Stonehill (11-20) 81 [10] 65-64 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET UNDER 138.2		 Le Moyne (66.3%)
Northwestern (13-16) 66, Purdue #15 (22-7) 70 [4] 74-70 ✓ MAE: 3.8
BET UNDER 146.8		 Purdue (66.2%)
SIU Edwardsville (19-12) 71, Eastern Illinois (12-19) 77 [6] 64-62 ✗ MAE: 10.6
O/U: 128.2		 SIU Edwardsville (66.2%)
Eastern Kentucky (11-20) 76, Stetson (11-20) 92 [16] 75-74 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET UNDER 155.8		 Eastern Kentucky (65.4%)
Penn State (12-17) 62, Ohio State (18-11) 94 [32] 73-74 ✗ MAE: 16.6
BET UNDER 152.5		 Ohio State (64.6%)
Texas (18-11) 85, Arkansas #20 (21-8) 105 [20] 82-85 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET OVER 164.5		 Arkansas (63.8%)
USC (18-11) 72, Washington (14-15) 91 [19] 74-73 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET UNDER 150.8		 Washington (61.8%)
North Alabama (9-20) 58, Florida Gulf Coast (14-17) 69 [11] 72-72 ✗ MAE: 8.8
BET OVER 139.5		 Florida Gulf Coast (61.3%)
Kansas City (4-26) 62, Oral Roberts (9-22) 84 [22] 71-72 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 149.5		 Oral Roberts (59.8%)
Little Rock (12-19) 62, Lindenwood (17-14) 72 [10] 73-71 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 148.5		 Lindenwood (59.5%)
Fairleigh Dickinson (11-20) 61, Mercyhurst (15-16) 70 [9] 64-61 ✓ MAE: 6.0
BET UNDER 132.5		 Mercyhurst (59.2%)
Providence (14-15) 56, Marquette (10-19) 78 [22] 78-79 ✗ MAE: 11.7
BET UNDER 162.0		 Providence (57.7%)
SMU (19-10) 69, Miami #22 (23-6) 77 [8] 80-79 ✓ MAE: 6.6
O/U: 159.2		 SMU (57.6%)
Youngstown State (15-16) 53, Robert Morris (21-10) 68 [15] 78-75 ✗ MAE: 15.6
BET OVER 143.0		 Robert Morris (57.5%)
Oakland (16-15) 84, Northern Kentucky (18-13) 85 [1] 82-79 ✓ MAE: 4.2
O/U: 161.8		 Oakland (56.3%)
North Florida (7-24) 85, West Georgia (14-16) 93 [8] 81-80 ✗ MAE: 8.5
O/U: 160.0		 West Georgia (55.2%)
Davidson (18-11) 67, Saint Joseph's (19-10) 70 [3] 69-64 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET UNDER 136.8		 Davidson (54.7%)
Milwaukee (12-19) 63, Detroit Mercy (15-14) 84 [21] 80-78 ✗ MAE: 11.6
BET OVER 151.5		 Detroit Mercy (54.4%)
Butler (15-14) 59, Creighton (14-16) 76 [17] 78-74 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET UNDER 155.5		 Butler (54.0%)
DePaul (16-13) 57, Villanova (22-7) 76 [19] 66-73 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET OVER 135.8		 Villanova (53.4%)
Jacksonville (12-19) 79, Bellarmine (12-18) 82 [3] 75-72 ✓ MAE: 7.0
O/U: 146.0		 Bellarmine (53.1%)
Duquesne (16-13) 52, Rhode Island (15-14) 64 [12] 73-72 ✗ MAE: 14.6
O/U: 143.5		 Rhode Island (53.1%)
Georgia Tech (11-18) 65, California (20-9) 76 [11] 75-78 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 155.5		 California (53.1%)
Fordham (16-13) 84, La Salle (8-21) 87 [3] 64-69 ✗ MAE: 19.0
O/U: 131.8		 Fordham (52.0%)
Notre Dame (13-16) 78, Stanford (18-11) 86 [8] 72-69 ✗ MAE: 11.3
BET UNDER 146.8		 Notre Dame (51.1%) DOG
Pittsburgh (11-18) 74, Florida State (15-14) 75 [1] 76-76 ✓ MAE: 1.4
BET OVER 144.0		 Florida State (50.5%)
Charlotte (15-14) 74, UAB (18-11) 80 [6] 73-78 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET OVER 145.0		 UAB (50.1%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
37
Final results
37
Correct picks
24
Incorrect picks
13
Pending
0
Accuracy
64.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
37
Avg Confidence
63.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0858
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
36
ML Win Rate
63.9%
ML Profit
$$-292
ML ROI
-8.1%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
37
Avg Confidence
40.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2871
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
28
O/U Wins
14
O/U Losses
14
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$$-127
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$90.90
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-100.00
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Minnesota 47 @ Indiana 77 Indiana (72.1%) Indiana -6.5 +8.6 -2.1 +30.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Purdue @ Northwestern Northwestern 33.8% +450 +16.5% LOSS
Chicago State @ Long Island University Chicago State 22.6% +575 +8.4% LOSS
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast North Alabama 38.7% +275 +13.2% LOSS