Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-06
Latest Mar 5 Mar 4 Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 28 Feb 27
All Games Summary
Total Picks
26
Final results
26
Correct picks
18
Incorrect picks
8
Pending
0
Accuracy
69.2%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (26)
Gardner-Webb (4-28) 59, High Point (27-4) 81 [22] 64-90 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 158.5		 High Point (96.3%)
Northern Illinois (9-20) 55, Akron (25-5) 94 [39] 67-84 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET UNDER 154.8		 Akron (95.3%)
Western Michigan (10-20) 78, Kent State (22-8) 86 [8] 72-76 ✓ MAE: 8.0
BET UNDER 158.2		 Kent State (77.9%)
UNLV (16-14) 86, San Diego State (19-10) 89 [3] 69-72 ✗ MAE: 16.8
BET UNDER 153.0		 San Diego State (77.3%)
Stetson (12-20) 60, Austin Peay (21-8) 69 [9] 73-75 ✗ MAE: 9.2
BET UNDER 150.5		 Austin Peay (75.0%)
VMI (6-25) 70, UNC Greensboro (13-18) 84 [14] 73-74 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 155.8		 UNC Greensboro (71.4%)
Buffalo (17-13) 78, Toledo (16-14) 98 [20] 77-77 ✗ MAE: 11.2
O/U: 154.5		 Toledo (71.2%)
West Georgia (15-16) 63, Queens University (18-13) 71 [8] 76-80 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET UNDER 164.5		 Queens University (67.6%)
Chattanooga (13-18) 85, The Citadel (10-21) 88 [3] 68-71 ✗ MAE: 17.0
BET UNDER 145.8		 Chattanooga (66.0%)
Bellarmine (13-18) 73, Central Arkansas (20-11) 86 [13] 76-75 ✓ MAE: 7.0
BET UNDER 155.8		 Central Arkansas (65.8%)
Charleston Southern (15-16) 81, Winthrop (21-10) 86 [5] 76-75 ✓ MAE: 7.6
BET UNDER 162.5		 Winthrop (65.5%)
UCF (20-9) 62, West Virginia (17-13) 77 [15] 71-71 ✓ MAE: 7.2
O/U: 141.5		 West Virginia (61.3%)
Radford (16-15) 85, Presbyterian (14-17) 91 [6] 76-74 ✗ MAE: 13.3
BET OVER 145.2		 Radford (61.1%)
Columbia (16-11) 71, Harvard (16-11) 81 [10] 75-75 ✓ MAE: 4.9
BET OVER 133.8		 Harvard (60.0%)
Ohio (15-15) 108, Miami (OH) #19 (30-0) 110 [2] 79-81 ✗ MAE: 28.9
O/U: 159.8		 Miami (OH) (59.7%)
Lipscomb (19-12) 53, Florida Gulf Coast (15-17) 77 [24] 72-74 ✗ MAE: 13.0
BET UNDER 150.5		 Lipscomb (59.5%)
Longwood (16-15) 82, UNC Asheville (14-16) 85 [3] 71-68 ✗ MAE: 14.2
BET UNDER 140.8		 UNC Asheville (57.7%) DOG
Brown (9-17) 61, Pennsylvania (15-11) 82 [21] 72-69 ✗ MAE: 9.4
O/U: 142.0		 Brown (57.7%) DOG
Central Michigan (10-20) 69, Ball State (11-19) 85 [16] 69-72 ✓ MAE: 6.4
BET OVER 135.8		 Ball State (55.5%)
Dayton (21-9) 62, VCU (23-7) 68 [6] 76-70 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 148.8		 Dayton (54.7%)
Murray State (20-11) 79, UIC (17-14) 92 [13] 72-74 ✗ MAE: 12.4
BET UNDER 148.5		 Murray State (54.5%)
North Carolina A&T (11-18) 72, Northeastern (6-23) 88 [16] 72-73 ✗ MAE: 8.7
BET UNDER 153.8		 North Carolina A&T (53.0%)
Eastern Michigan (10-20) 69, Bowling Green (17-13) 77 [8] 73-69 ✓ MAE: 2.1
O/U: 141.5		 Eastern Michigan (53.0%) DOG
Seton Hall (20-10) 65, St. John's #18 (24-6) 72 [7] 68-72 ✓ MAE: 5.1
BET OVER 137.2		 St. John's (51.5%)
South Dakota (16-15) 62, Omaha (15-16) 76 [14] 74-74 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 151.5		 Omaha (50.9%)
Denver (15-16) 67, North Dakota (16-16) 83 [16] 78-74 ✗ MAE: 9.9
BET UNDER 160.8		 North Dakota (50.3%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
26
Final results
26
Correct picks
18
Incorrect picks
8
Pending
0
Accuracy
69.2%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
26
Avg Confidence
64.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0639
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
16
ML Win Rate
68.8%
ML Profit
$$77
ML ROI
4.8%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$160
ROI
160.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$258
ROI
129.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$160
ROI
160.0%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
26
Avg Confidence
42.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1367
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
21
O/U Wins
12
O/U Losses
9
O/U Win Rate
57.1%
O/U Profit
$$191
O/U ROI
9.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+4.7%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$160
ROI
160.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Denver 67, North Dakota 83 [16] North Dakota 50.3% +160 +13.4% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$258
ROI
129.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Denver 67, North Dakota 83 [16] North Dakota 50.3% +160 +13.4% WIN
Longwood 82, UNC Asheville 85 [3] UNC Asheville 57.7% -102 +9.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$160
ROI
160.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Denver 67, North Dakota 83 [16] North Dakota 50.3% +160 +13.4% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$335
ROI
111.7%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Miami (OH) @ Ohio Ohio 40.3% +230 +11.3% LOSS
Denver @ North Dakota North Dakota 50.3% +160 +13.4% WIN
The Citadel @ Chattanooga The Citadel 34.0% +275 +8.4% WIN