Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-05
Latest Mar 4 Mar 3 Mar 2 Mar 1 Feb 28 Feb 27 Feb 26
All Games Summary
Total Picks
41
Final results
41
Correct picks
27
Incorrect picks
14
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.9%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (41)
Rutgers (12-17) 87, Michigan State #8 (24-5) 91 [4] 63-75 ✗ MAE: 20.1
BET UNDER 141.0		 Michigan State (94.6%)
Evansville (7-24) 59, Northern Iowa (19-12) 68 [9] 59-66 ✓ MAE: 1.0
O/U: 125.2		 Northern Iowa (87.6%)
Bucknell (10-22) 69, Navy (25-6) 74 [5] 63-70 ✓ MAE: 5.2
O/U: 133.5		 Navy (86.2%)
Cal Poly (13-17) 85, UC Irvine (20-10) 107 [22] 72-78 ✗ MAE: 21.0
BET UNDER 155.8		 UC Irvine (77.6%)
Mississippi Valley State (3-28) 77, Jackson State (10-20) 85 [8] 63-73 ✗ MAE: 12.9
BET UNDER 144.5		 Jackson State (77.0%)
Abilene Christian (13-16) 48, California Baptist (21-8) 87 [39] 64-67 ✗ MAE: 18.1
BET UNDER 135.5		 California Baptist (76.2%)
UC Riverside (10-21) 74, Hawai'i (21-7) 93 [19] 67-73 ✗ MAE: 13.3
BET UNDER 148.8		 Hawai'i (74.6%)
Liberty (24-5) 71, Louisiana Tech (16-13) 76 [5] 66-67 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 138.2		 Liberty (71.9%)
Loyola Maryland (12-19) 77, Colgate (17-14) 90 [13] 72-72 ✗ MAE: 11.3
BET UNDER 151.5		 Colgate (71.1%)
Coppin State (7-23) 66, Morgan State (13-15) 69 [3] 70-74 ✓ MAE: 4.1
BET UNDER 151.5		 Morgan State (71.1%)
South Dakota State (14-17) 67, St. Thomas-Minnesota (23-8) 80 [13] 77-78 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET OVER 150.5		 St. Thomas-Minnesota (69.3%)
Loyola Marymount (15-16) 62, San Diego (11-20) 66 [4] 71-74 ✗ MAE: 8.5
O/U: 145.5		 Loyola Marymount (68.2%)
Iowa (20-9) 68, Michigan #3 (27-2) 71 [3] 79-76 ✗ MAE: 8.0
BET OVER 146.2		 Michigan (64.0%)
Manhattan (12-19) 60, Fairfield (19-12) 71 [11] 70-72 ✓ MAE: 5.5
BET UNDER 150.2		 Fairfield (62.7%)
Holy Cross (11-21) 66, Lehigh (15-16) 69 [3] 70-67 ✓ MAE: 2.8
BET UNDER 141.5		 Lehigh (62.4%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (9-21) 56, Delaware State (6-22) 57 [1] 62-60 ✓ MAE: 4.6
BET UNDER 126.5		 Maryland Eastern Shore (61.3%)
Texas Southern (12-16) 59, Prairie View A&M (13-17) 70 [11] 75-74 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 155.5		 Texas Southern (60.8%)
North Carolina Central (12-16) 64, South Carolina State (8-21) 80 [16] 69-71 ✗ MAE: 9.0
BET UNDER 145.5		 North Carolina Central (60.7%)
Pepperdine (9-22) 68, Portland (13-18) 77 [9] 71-71 ✓ MAE: 4.4
BET UNDER 152.0		 Portland (60.4%)
Iona (18-13) 80, Sacred Heart (13-18) 91 [11] 69-70 ✗ MAE: 15.6
BET UNDER 147.8		 Iona (60.2%)
Indiana State (11-20) 62, Valparaiso (17-14) 63 [1] 71-70 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET OVER 135.8		 Valparaiso (59.7%)
Tulane (17-12) 60, Temple (15-14) 89 [29] 70-70 ✗ MAE: 14.6
BET UNDER 144.8		 Temple (59.7%)
Southern Illinois (16-15) 63, Drake (12-19) 67 [4] 72-71 ✓ MAE: 6.2
BET OVER 135.2		 Southern Illinois (59.7%)
Jacksonville State (14-15) 75, New Mexico State (13-15) 77 [2] 69-66 ✗ MAE: 8.2
BET UNDER 142.5		 New Mexico State (59.0%)
Southern Utah (10-19) 88, Utah Valley (22-7) 92 [4] 72-70 ✗ MAE: 19.2
BET UNDER 151.0		 Utah Valley (57.5%)
American University (16-15) 73, Boston University (15-16) 75 [2] 72-66 ✓ MAE: 5.0
BET UNDER 141.5		 Boston University (56.7%)
East Carolina (11-18) 66, Tulsa (23-6) 93 [27] 73-74 ✗ MAE: 14.1
BET UNDER 156.2		 Tulsa (56.6%)
Alabama State (10-20) 63, Grambling (12-18) 65 [2] 69-65 ✓ MAE: 2.7
BET UNDER 143.5		 Alabama State (55.3%)
Memphis (12-17) 89, South Florida (21-8) 96 [7] 76-78 ✗ MAE: 15.6
BET UNDER 160.5		 South Florida (55.2%)
Cal State Bakersfield (8-22) 84, Cal State Northridge (18-12) 86 [2] 76-76 ✗ MAE: 8.5
BET UNDER 164.5		 Cal State Northridge (55.0%)
Alcorn State (8-21) 48, Arkansas-Pine Bluff (12-18) 83 [35] 76-72 ✗ MAE: 15.8
O/U: 149.5		 Alcorn State (54.3%) DOG
Florida International (14-15) 67, Middle Tennessee (15-14) 73 [6] 74-70 ✓ MAE: 1.8
BET UNDER 154.0		 Florida International (54.2%)
Tarleton State (14-16) 60, UT Arlington (15-13) 65 [5] 70-65 ✓ MAE: 5.1
O/U: 136.2		 Tarleton State (53.8%)
Western Kentucky (18-11) 74, Missouri State (13-16) 87 [13] 71-69 ✗ MAE: 10.4
BET UNDER 151.5		 Missouri State (52.7%) DOG
Alabama A&M (17-13) 85, Southern (14-16) 88 [3] 73-71 ✗ MAE: 14.8
BET UNDER 148.5		 Alabama A&M (52.7%) DOG
Kennesaw State (18-11) 71, UTEP (10-19) 78 [7] 74-70 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 149.2		 UTEP (52.3%) DOG
Bethune-Cookman (17-13) 77, Florida A&M (12-15) 81 [4] 70-68 ✗ MAE: 9.8
BET UNDER 145.5		 Florida A&M (52.3%) DOG
Long Beach State (9-21) 70, UC Davis (17-12) 76 [6] 75-71 ✓ MAE: 1.1
BET UNDER 150.5		 Long Beach State (52.1%) DOG
Sam Houston (21-8) 80, Delaware (9-20) 83 [3] 74-67 ✗ MAE: 11.2
BET UNDER 147.8		 Delaware (51.8%) DOG
UC San Diego (21-9) 71, Cal State Fullerton (15-15) 75 [4] 70-76 ✓ MAE: 0.8
BET UNDER 157.5		 UC San Diego (51.6%)
Norfolk State (15-15) 76, Howard (20-10) 84 [8] 68-70 ✗ MAE: 11.0
BET UNDER 145.5		 Howard (50.2%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
41
Final results
41
Correct picks
27
Incorrect picks
14
Pending
0
Accuracy
65.9%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
41
Avg Confidence
62.7%
ECE (lower=better)
0.0951
Calibration Quality
Good
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
14
ML Win Rate
50.0%
ML Profit
$$-479
ML ROI
-34.2%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
41
Avg Confidence
42.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3374
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
36
O/U Wins
13
O/U Losses
23
O/U Win Rate
36.1%
O/U Profit
$$-1118
O/U ROI
-31.1%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-16.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
1
Failed
0
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$90.90
ROI
90.9%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
0
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
0.0%
O/U Profit
$-100.00
O/U ROI
-100.0%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-52.4%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Loyola Maryland 77 @ Colgate 90 Colgate (71.1%) Colgate -6.5 +6.5 +0.0 +13.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Michigan @ Iowa Iowa 36.0% +380 +16.0% LOSS
Rutgers @ Michigan State Rutgers 5.4% +3000 +2.3% LOSS
South Florida @ Memphis Memphis 44.8% +230 +15.7% LOSS