Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-12
Latest Mar 11 Mar 9 Mar 8 Mar 7 Mar 6 Mar 5 Mar 4
All Games Summary
Total Picks
14
Final results
14
Correct picks
10
Incorrect picks
4
Pending
0
Accuracy
71.4%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (14)
Buffalo (17-14) 70, Akron (26-5) 73 [3] Akron (88.9%)
Miami (OH) #20 (31-0) 83, Massachusetts (16-15) 87 [4] Miami (OH) (75.7%)
Norfolk State (15-16) 82, South Carolina State (9-21) 88 [6] Norfolk State (75.4%)
Fordham (17-14) 62, George Washington (17-14) 66 [4] George Washington (69.0%)
Arkansas-Pine Bluff (13-18) 81, Southern (15-16) 84 [3] Southern (67.3%)
Western Kentucky (18-13) 87, Kennesaw State (18-13) 96 [9] Western Kentucky (65.9%)
Ohio (15-16) 75, Kent State (23-8) 86 [11] Kent State (65.7%)
Bowling Green (18-13) 76, Toledo (17-14) 77 [1] Toledo (65.6%)
Southern Utah (10-21) 63, UT Arlington (17-13) 69 [6] UT Arlington (65.4%)
Creighton (15-16) 61, Seton Hall (20-11) 72 [11] Seton Hall (64.4%)
Maryland Eastern Shore (9-22) 76, North Carolina Central (12-17) 83 [7] North Carolina Central (64.3%) DOG
Rhode Island (16-15) 61, Duquesne (17-14) 67 [6] Duquesne (61.9%)
Texas Southern (12-17) 74, Alabama A&M (17-14) 85 [11] Texas Southern (56.3%) DOG
Middle Tennessee (17-14) 69, Louisiana Tech (18-13) 80 [11] Louisiana Tech (51.7%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
14
Final results
14
Correct picks
10
Incorrect picks
4
Pending
0
Accuracy
71.4%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
14
Avg Confidence
67.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2720
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
13
ML Win Rate
69.2%
ML Profit
$$122
ML ROI
9.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$8
ROI
3.8%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$64
ROI
12.8%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-15
ROI
-7.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$8
ROI
3.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Texas Southern 74, Alabama A&M 85 [11] Texas Southern 56.3% +100 +8.4% LOSS
Middle Tennessee 69, Louisiana Tech 80 [11] Louisiana Tech 51.7% +107 +5.5% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
5
Wins
3
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
60.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$64
ROI
12.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bowling Green 76, Toledo 77 [1] Toledo 65.6% -117 +15.3% WIN
Western Kentucky 87, Kennesaw State 96 [9] Western Kentucky 65.9% -125 +12.7% LOSS
Texas Southern 74, Alabama A&M 85 [11] Texas Southern 56.3% +100 +8.4% LOSS
Rhode Island 61, Duquesne 67 [6] Duquesne 61.9% -140 +5.7% WIN
Middle Tennessee 69, Louisiana Tech 80 [11] Louisiana Tech 51.7% +107 +5.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-15
ROI
-7.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bowling Green 76, Toledo 77 [1] Toledo 65.6% -117 +15.3% WIN
Western Kentucky 87, Kennesaw State 96 [9] Western Kentucky 65.9% -125 +12.7% LOSS
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-115
ROI
-38.3%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Bowling Green @ Toledo Toledo 65.6% -117 +15.3% WIN
Kennesaw State @ Western Kentucky Western Kentucky 65.9% -125 +12.7% LOSS
Alabama A&M @ Texas Southern Texas Southern 56.3% +100 +8.4% LOSS