Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-11
Latest Mar 9 Mar 8 Mar 7 Mar 6 Mar 5 Mar 4 Mar 3
All Games Summary
Total Picks
23
Final results
23
Correct picks
12
Incorrect picks
11
Pending
0
Accuracy
52.2%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (23)
Air Force (3-28) 45, Nevada (20-11) 80 [35] 54-85 ✓ MAE: 7.1
BET UNDER 141.5		 Nevada (93.4%)
Boise State (20-11) 74, San José State (8-23) 84 [10] 65-85 ✗ MAE: 14.8
BET OVER 145.5		 Boise State (89.4%)
South Carolina (13-18) 74, Oklahoma (17-14) 86 [12] 71-83 ✓ MAE: 3.2
BET OVER 149.5		 Oklahoma (74.2%)
Fresno State (13-18) 63, Colorado State (20-11) 67 [4] 61-77 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET UNDER 144.5		 Colorado State (73.8%)
Mississippi State (13-18) 61, Auburn (16-15) 79 [18] 70-85 ✓ MAE: 7.8
BET UNDER 159.5		 Auburn (73.5%)
LSU (15-16) 82, Kentucky (19-12) 87 [5] 65-81 ✗ MAE: 11.1
BET UNDER 151.5		 Kentucky (73.0%)
Cal Poly (14-18) 69, UC San Diego (22-10) 72 [3] 68-84 ✓ MAE: 6.1
BET UNDER 160.5		 UC San Diego (70.8%)
USC (18-13) 79, Washington (15-16) 83 [4] 68-80 ✓ MAE: 7.5
BET UNDER 152.5		 Washington (68.9%)
Minnesota (15-16) 67, Rutgers (13-18) 72 [5] 61-76 ✗ MAE: 10.0
O/U: 135.5		 Minnesota (68.5%)
Texas (18-13) 66, Ole Miss (12-19) 76 [10] 66-82 ✗ MAE: 12.6
BET OVER 145.5		 Texas (68.2%)
California (21-10) 89, Florida State (17-14) 95 [6] 74-81 ✗ MAE: 14.6
O/U: 152.8		 Florida State (67.7%)
Richmond (15-16) 67, Loyola Chicago (8-23) 75 [8] 67-80 ✗ MAE: 10.6
BET OVER 141.8		 Richmond (66.9%)
Wyoming (18-13) 70, UNLV (16-15) 73 [3] 70-78 ✓ MAE: 2.5
BET UNDER 153.5		 UNLV (66.0%)
Memphis (13-18) 69, Tulane (17-14) 81 [12] 70-66 ✓ MAE: 6.6
BET UNDER 151.5		 Memphis (65.3%)
Morgan State (14-15) 70, Delaware State (7-22) 75 [5] 66-76 ✓ MAE: 7.5
O/U: 142.8		 Morgan State (65.2%)
Marquette (12-19) 87, Xavier (14-17) 89 [2] 73-84 ✗ MAE: 9.6
O/U: 156.5		 Marquette (64.9%)
Temple (16-15) 59, Florida Atlantic (17-14) 63 [4] 69-77 ✗ MAE: 12.1
O/U: 144.5		 Florida Atlantic (64.5%)
La Salle (9-22) 80, St. Bonaventure (15-16) 99 [19] 75-69 ✗ MAE: 17.5
BET UNDER 146.2		 St. Bonaventure (63.0%)
DePaul (16-15) 56, Georgetown (14-17) 63 [7] 64-75 ✗ MAE: 10.0
BET OVER 134.0		 DePaul (55.9%)
UC Santa Barbara (18-13) 73, UC Davis (18-13) 79 [6] 81-75 ✓ MAE: 5.8
BET OVER 139.5		 UC Santa Barbara (54.2%)
Butler (16-15) 81, Providence (14-17) 91 [10] 82-88 ✗ MAE: 8.1
BET OVER 163.2		 Butler (52.3%) DOG
Boston University (17-16) 60, Lehigh (17-16) 74 [14] 73-79 ✗ MAE: 9.1
BET OVER 138.8		 Lehigh (51.2%) DOG
Tarleton State (14-17) 78, Abilene Christian (13-18) 84 [6] 74-67 ✗ MAE: 10.8
BET OVER 135.0		 Tarleton State (51.1%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
23
Final results
23
Correct picks
12
Incorrect picks
11
Pending
0
Accuracy
52.2%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
23
Avg Confidence
67.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2715
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
23
ML Win Rate
52.2%
ML Profit
$$-558
ML ROI
-24.3%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$8
ROI
3.8%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-26
ROI
-13.0%
Against The Spread (ATS) Performance
Spread Bets
20
ATS Wins
7
ATS Losses
13
ATS Win Rate
35.0%
Spread Profit
$$-664
Spread ROI
-33.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-17.4%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
23
Avg Confidence
66.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3671
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
18
O/U Wins
12
O/U Losses
6
O/U Win Rate
66.7%
O/U Profit
$$491
O/U ROI
27.3%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+14.3%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
4
Completed
4
Covered
1
Failed
3
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
25.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-209.10
ROI
-52.3%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
4
O/U Wins
3
O/U Losses
1
O/U Win Rate
75.0%
O/U Profit
$172.70
O/U ROI
43.2%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+22.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Cal Poly 69 @ UC San Diego 72 UC San Diego (70.8%) UC San Diego -5.8 +9.6 +15.3 +3.0 FAILED
Fresno State 63 @ Colorado State 67 Colorado State (73.8%) Colorado State -7.8 +7.8 +15.6 +4.0 FAILED
LSU 82 @ Kentucky 87 Kentucky (73.0%) Kentucky -8.5 +7.5 +16.0 +5.0 FAILED
Mississippi State 61 @ Auburn 79 Auburn (73.5%) Auburn -8.0 +7.0 +15.0 +18.0 COVERED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$8
ROI
3.8%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Butler 81, Providence 91 [10] Butler 52.3% +100 +4.5% LOSS
Boston University 60, Lehigh 74 [14] Lehigh 51.2% +107 +5.0% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-26
ROI
-13.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Temple 59, Florida Atlantic 63 [4] Florida Atlantic 64.5% -135 +9.2% WIN
Morgan State 70, Delaware State 75 [5] Morgan State 65.2% -150 +6.9% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$159
ROI
53.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UC Santa Barbara @ UC Davis UC Davis 45.8% +185 +12.2% WIN
Temple @ Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic 64.5% -135 +9.2% WIN
Delaware State @ Morgan State Morgan State 65.2% -150 +6.9% LOSS