Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-09
Latest Mar 8 Mar 7 Mar 6 Mar 5 Mar 4 Mar 3 Mar 2
All Games Summary
Total Picks
5
Final results
5
Correct picks
3
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
60.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (5)
Mississippi Valley State (3-29) 52, Grambling (13-18) 77 [25] 65-69 ✗ MAE: 10.7
BET UNDER 136.2		 Grambling (87.3%)
Alabama State (10-21) 65, Alcorn State (8-22) 77 [12] 70-70 ✓ MAE: 5.7
BET UNDER 142.2		 Alabama State (71.3%)
Robert Morris (22-10) 64, Detroit Mercy (16-14) 70 [6] 77-74 ✗ MAE: 8.6
BET OVER 146.5		 Robert Morris (67.6%)
Weber State (16-15) 79, Eastern Washington (13-18) 84 [5] 78-73 ✓ MAE: 5.9
BET UNDER 154.2		 Eastern Washington (56.2%)
Northern Colorado (20-11) 89, Montana (16-15) 95 [6] 76-74 ✗ MAE: 16.6
O/U: 152.2		 Montana (50.2%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
5
Final results
5
Correct picks
3
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
60.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
5
Avg Confidence
66.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.4904
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
5
ML Win Rate
60.0%
ML Profit
$$41
ML ROI
8.1%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$170
ROI
170.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$170
ROI
170.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$170
ROI
170.0%
Spread Confidence Calibration
Calibrated Games
5
Avg Confidence
30.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.3106
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
Over/Under Betting Performance (2+ Point Edge vs Vegas O/U)
O/U Bets
4
O/U Wins
2
O/U Losses
2
O/U Win Rate
50.0%
O/U Profit
$$-18
O/U ROI
-4.5%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
-2.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100.00
ROI
-100.0%
Over/Under Performance (Recommended Picks Only)
O/U Bets
1
O/U Wins
1
O/U Losses
0
O/U Win Rate
100.0%
O/U Profit
$90.90
O/U ROI
90.9%
Breakeven Rate
52.4%
Edge
+47.6%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Alcorn State 77 @ Alabama State 65 Alabama State (71.3%) Alabama State -7.2 +7.8 -0.6 -12.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$170
ROI
170.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northern Colorado 89, Montana 95 [6] Montana 50.2% +170 +14.5% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$170
ROI
170.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northern Colorado 89, Montana 95 [6] Montana 50.2% +170 +14.5% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$170
ROI
170.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northern Colorado 89, Montana 95 [6] Montana 50.2% +170 +14.5% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
1
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
33.3%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-30
ROI
-10.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Northern Colorado @ Montana Montana 50.2% +170 +14.5% WIN
Weber State @ Eastern Washington Weber State 43.8% +140 +3.7% LOSS
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris Robert Morris 67.6% -200 +3.3% LOSS