Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-18
Latest Mar 19 Mar 18 Mar 17 Mar 15 Mar 14 Mar 13 Mar 12
All Games Summary
Total Picks
10
Final results
10
Correct picks
7
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
70.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (10)
Sam Houston (22-11) 83, New Mexico (23-10) 107 [24] New Mexico (90.5%)
Murray State (20-12) 75, Nevada (22-12) 89 [14] Nevada (80.0%)
Kent State (24-9) 58, Illinois State (20-12) 79 [21] Illinois State (77.6%)
UIC (19-15) 73, California (21-11) 91 [18] California (76.1%)
Navy (26-7) 72, Wake Forest (17-16) 82 [10] Wake Forest (73.0%)
Colorado State (21-12) 64, Saint Joseph's (23-11) 69 [5] Colorado State (69.3%)
Utah Valley (25-8) 78, George Washington (18-15) 79 [1] Utah Valley (60.4%)
Bradley (21-12) 66, Dayton (23-11) 80 [14] Bradley (58.3%) DOG
Lehigh (18-16) 55, Prairie View A&M (18-17) 67 [12] Prairie View A&M (52.1%)
SMU (20-13) 79, Miami (OH) (31-1) 89 [10] Miami (OH) (51.6%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
10
Final results
10
Correct picks
7
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
0
Accuracy
70.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
10
Avg Confidence
68.9%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2704
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
2
ML Win Rate
100.0%
ML Profit
$$410
ML ROI
205.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$410
ROI
205.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$310
ROI
310.0%
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$310
ROI
310.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$410
ROI
205.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Lehigh 55, Prairie View A&M 67 [12] Prairie View A&M 52.1% +100 +4.3% WIN
SMU 79, Miami (OH) 89 [10] Miami (OH) 51.6% +310 +28.2% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$310
ROI
310.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
SMU 79, Miami (OH) 89 [10] Miami (OH) 51.6% +310 +28.2% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$310
ROI
310.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
SMU 79, Miami (OH) 89 [10] Miami (OH) 51.6% +310 +28.2% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
2
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$410
ROI
205.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
SMU @ Miami (OH) Miami (OH) 51.6% +310 +28.2% WIN
Lehigh @ Prairie View A&M Prairie View A&M 52.1% +100 +4.3% WIN