Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-19
Latest Mar 19 Mar 18 Mar 17 Mar 15 Mar 14 Mar 13 Mar 12
All Games Summary
Total Picks
16
Final results
16
Correct picks
10
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
62.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (16)
Siena (23-11) 65, Duke #1 (32-2) 71 [6] Duke (97.4%)
Pennsylvania (18-11) 70, Illinois #13 (24-8) 105 [35] Illinois (97.3%)
Kennesaw State (21-13) 64, Gonzaga #12 (30-3) 73 [9] Gonzaga (97.1%)
Hawai'i (24-8) 78, Arkansas #14 (26-8) 97 [19] Arkansas (90.8%)
Howard (24-10) 80, Michigan #3 (31-3) 101 [21] Michigan (83.1%)
Idaho (21-14) 47, Houston #5 (28-6) 78 [31] Houston (83.1%)
North Dakota State (27-7) 67, Michigan State #11 (25-7) 92 [25] Michigan State (77.7%)
McNeese (28-5) 68, Vanderbilt #16 (26-8) 78 [10] Vanderbilt (76.1%)
Troy (22-11) 47, Nebraska #15 (26-6) 76 [29] Nebraska (76.0%)
Wisconsin #19 (24-10) 82, High Point (30-4) 83 [1] Wisconsin (72.5%)
South Florida (25-8) 79, Louisville #23 (23-10) 83 [4] Louisville (65.5%)
Saint Mary's #22 (27-5) 50, Texas A&M (21-11) 63 [13] Saint Mary's (63.6%)
Ohio State (21-12) 64, TCU (22-11) 66 [2] Ohio State (62.9%)
North Carolina #21 (24-8) 78, VCU (27-7) 82 [4] North Carolina (59.0%)
BYU (23-11) 71, Texas (19-14) 79 [8] BYU (58.8%)
Georgia (22-10) 77, Saint Louis (28-5) 102 [25] Georgia (57.4%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
16
Final results
16
Correct picks
10
Incorrect picks
6
Pending
0
Accuracy
62.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
16
Avg Confidence
76.1%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2005
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
14
ML Win Rate
57.1%
ML Profit
$$-520
ML ROI
-37.2%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Saint Mary's 50, Texas A&M 63 [13] Saint Mary's 63.6% -142 +7.3% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Howard @ Michigan Howard 16.9% +5000 +15.0% LOSS
Idaho @ Houston Idaho 16.9% +3000 +13.8% LOSS
North Dakota State @ Michigan State North Dakota State 22.3% +850 +12.2% LOSS