Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-15
Latest Mar 14 Mar 13 Mar 12 Mar 11 Mar 9 Mar 8 Mar 7
All Games Summary
Total Picks
5
Final results
5
Correct picks
3
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
60.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (5)
Yale (24-5) 84, Pennsylvania (17-11) 88 [4] Yale (76.7%)
Michigan #3 (31-2) 72, Purdue #18 (26-8) 80 [8] Michigan (70.7%)
Wichita State (22-10) 55, South Florida (24-8) 70 [15] South Florida (69.9%)
Dayton (23-10) 62, VCU (26-7) 70 [8] VCU (63.0%)
Vanderbilt #22 (26-7) 75, Arkansas #17 (25-8) 86 [11] Arkansas (52.9%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
5
Final results
5
Correct picks
3
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
60.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
5
Avg Confidence
66.6%
ECE (lower=better)
0.5232
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
5
ML Win Rate
60.0%
ML Profit
$$28
ML ROI
5.6%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$125
ROI
124.5%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$125
ROI
124.5%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$125
ROI
124.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Vanderbilt 75, Arkansas 86 [11] Arkansas 52.9% +124 +10.1% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$125
ROI
124.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Vanderbilt 75, Arkansas 86 [11] Arkansas 52.9% +124 +10.1% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$125
ROI
124.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Vanderbilt 75, Arkansas 86 [11] Arkansas 52.9% +124 +10.1% WIN
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
3
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$584
ROI
194.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas Arkansas 52.9% +124 +10.1% WIN
Pennsylvania @ Yale Pennsylvania 23.3% +395 +4.0% WIN
Dayton @ VCU VCU 63.0% -156 +4.3% WIN