Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-17
Latest Mar 15 Mar 14 Mar 13 Mar 12 Mar 11 Mar 9 Mar 8
All Games Summary
Total Picks
10
Final results
9
Correct picks
6
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
1
Accuracy
66.7%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
⏰ UPCOMING GAMES (1)
NC State (20-13) @ Texas (18-14) Texas (62.8%)
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (9)
South Alabama (21-11) 67, Auburn (17-16) 78 [11] Auburn (80.8%)
Wyoming (18-14) 70, Wichita State (22-11) 74 [4] Wichita State (78.6%)
Stephen F. Austin (28-5) 84, Tulsa (26-7) 89 [5] Tulsa (78.5%)
Yale (24-6) 67, UNC Wilmington (26-6) 68 [1] Yale (78.1%)
UC Irvine (23-11) 72, UNLV (17-16) 75 [3] UC Irvine (77.2%)
Davidson (20-13) 80, Oklahoma State (19-14) 84 [4] Oklahoma State (69.8%)
George Mason (23-9) 71, Liberty (25-7) 77 [6] George Mason (60.2%)
St. Thomas-Minnesota (24-9) 52, Seattle U (20-13) 67 [15] Seattle U (59.4%)
Howard (23-10) 83, UMBC (24-8) 86 [3] UMBC (50.6%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
10
Final results
9
Correct picks
6
Incorrect picks
3
Pending
1
Accuracy
66.7%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
9
Avg Confidence
70.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2794
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
2
ML Win Rate
50.0%
ML Profit
$$0
ML ROI
0.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$100
ROI
100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
1
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
1
Wins
1
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$100
ROI
100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Howard 83, UMBC 86 [3] UMBC 50.6% +100 +2.8% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
1
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
NC State @ Texas Texas 62.8% -105 +13.8% PENDING
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
1
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
1
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
NC State @ Texas Texas 62.8% -105 +13.8% PENDING
Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
0
Pending
1
Win Rate
100.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$295
ROI
147.5%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
NC State @ Texas Texas 62.8% -105 +13.8% PENDING
Liberty @ George Mason Liberty 39.8% +195 +7.3% WIN
Howard @ UMBC UMBC 50.6% +100 +2.8% WIN