Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-21
Latest Mar 20 Mar 19 Mar 18 Mar 17 Mar 15 Mar 14 Mar 13
All Games Summary
Total Picks
10
Final results
10
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
80.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (10)
TCU (23-12) 58, Duke #1 (34-2) 81 [23] Duke (89.2%)
Saint Louis (29-6) 72, Michigan #3 (33-3) 95 [23] Michigan (84.6%)
Texas A&M (22-12) 57, Houston #5 (30-6) 88 [31] Houston (81.8%)
Gonzaga #12 (31-4) 68, Texas (21-14) 74 [6] Gonzaga (75.5%)
High Point (31-5) 88, Arkansas #14 (28-8) 94 [6] Arkansas (75.4%)
VCU (28-8) 55, Illinois #13 (26-8) 76 [21] Illinois (73.3%)
Liberty (26-8) 63, Nevada (24-12) 73 [10] Nevada (65.3%)
Louisville #23 (24-11) 69, Michigan State #11 (27-7) 77 [8] Michigan State (60.8%)
UNC Wilmington (27-7) 61, Dayton (25-11) 80 [19] UNC Wilmington (53.2%) DOG
Vanderbilt #16 (27-9) 72, Nebraska #15 (28-6) 74 [2] Nebraska (52.6%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
10
Final results
10
Correct picks
8
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
80.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
10
Avg Confidence
71.2%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1484
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
10
ML Win Rate
80.0%
ML Profit
$$80
ML ROI
8.0%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$20
ROI
10.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-66
ROI
-16.4%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)
Total Recommended
1
Completed
1
Covered
0
Failed
1
Pushes
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100.00
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Spread Edge Predicted Actual Result
Texas 74 @ Gonzaga #12 68 Gonzaga (75.5%) Gonzaga -6.5 +8.6 +0.0 -6.0 FAILED
Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
1
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$20
ROI
10.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UNC Wilmington 61, Dayton 80 [19] UNC Wilmington 53.2% +120 +9.5% LOSS
Vanderbilt 72, Nebraska 74 [2] Nebraska 52.6% +120 +9.0% WIN
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
4
Wins
2
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
50.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-66
ROI
-16.4%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
UNC Wilmington 61, Dayton 80 [19] UNC Wilmington 53.2% +120 +9.5% LOSS
Vanderbilt 72, Nebraska 74 [2] Nebraska 52.6% +120 +9.0% WIN
Gonzaga 68, Texas 74 [6] Gonzaga 75.5% -230 +8.6% LOSS
TCU 58, Duke 81 [23] Duke 89.2% -700 +5.2% WIN
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
High Point @ Arkansas High Point 24.6% +500 +8.6% LOSS
VCU @ Illinois VCU 26.7% +440 +8.9% LOSS
Liberty @ Nevada Liberty 34.7% +270 +8.8% LOSS