Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-20
Latest Mar 19 Mar 18 Mar 17 Mar 15 Mar 14 Mar 13 Mar 12
All Games Summary
Total Picks
16
Final results
16
Correct picks
14
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
87.5%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (16)
Long Island University (24-10) 58, Arizona #2 (32-2) 92 [34] Arizona (97.3%)
Prairie View A&M (19-17) 55, Florida #4 (26-7) 114 [59] Florida (97.3%)
Furman (22-12) 71, UConn #7 (29-5) 82 [11] UConn (95.8%)
Wright State (23-11) 73, Virginia #9 (29-5) 82 [9] Virginia (94.6%)
Tennessee State (23-9) 74, Iowa State #6 (27-7) 108 [34] Iowa State (83.0%)
Queens University (21-13) 71, Purdue #8 (27-8) 104 [33] Purdue (83.0%)
California Baptist (25-8) 60, Kansas #17 (23-10) 68 [8] Kansas (77.7%)
Hofstra (24-10) 70, Alabama #18 (23-9) 90 [20] Alabama (76.0%)
Miami (OH) (32-1) 56, Tennessee #23 (22-11) 78 [22] Tennessee (73.8%)
UCF (21-11) 71, UCLA (23-11) 75 [4] UCLA (72.1%)
Northern Iowa (23-12) 53, St. John's #10 (28-6) 79 [26] St. John's (69.4%)
Akron (29-5) 71, Texas Tech #20 (22-10) 91 [20] Texas Tech (68.1%)
Santa Clara (26-8) 84, Kentucky (21-13) 89 [5] Kentucky (59.1%)
Missouri (20-12) 66, Miami #25 (25-8) 80 [14] Miami (56.9%)
Villanova (24-8) 76, Utah State (28-6) 86 [10] Villanova (50.5%) DOG
Clemson (24-10) 61, Iowa (21-12) 67 [6] Clemson (50.5%) DOG
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
16
Final results
16
Correct picks
14
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
87.5%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
16
Avg Confidence
75.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.1430
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
14
ML Win Rate
85.7%
ML Profit
$$85
ML ROI
6.1%
Underdog Moneyline Strategy
Underdog Bets
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-200
ROI
-100.0%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Villanova 76, Utah State 86 [10] Villanova 50.5% +114 +5.6% LOSS
Clemson 61, Iowa 67 [6] Clemson 50.5% +120 +6.8% LOSS
75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
2
Wins
0
Losses
2
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-200
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Clemson 61, Iowa 67 [6] Clemson 50.5% +120 +6.8% LOSS
Villanova 76, Utah State 86 [10] Villanova 50.5% +114 +5.6% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
0
Losses
3
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-300
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Queens University @ Purdue Queens University 17.0% +2200 +12.8% LOSS
Tennessee State @ Iowa State Tennessee State 17.0% +2000 +12.4% LOSS
California Baptist @ Kansas California Baptist 22.3% +650 +9.5% LOSS