Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-27
Latest Mar 26 Mar 25 Mar 24 Mar 22 Mar 21 Mar 20 Mar 19
All Games Summary
Total Picks
4
Final results
4
Correct picks
3
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (4)
St. John's #10 (30-6) 75, Duke #1 (34-2) 80 [5] Duke (73.3%)
Alabama #18 (25-9) 77, Michigan #3 (33-3) 90 [13] Michigan (71.1%)
Iowa State #6 (29-7) 62, Tennessee #23 (24-11) 76 [14] Iowa State (65.0%)
Michigan State #11 (27-7) 63, UConn #7 (31-5) 67 [4] UConn (56.6%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
4
Final results
4
Correct picks
3
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
0
Accuracy
75.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
4
Avg Confidence
66.5%
ECE (lower=better)
0.4102
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
4
ML Win Rate
75.0%
ML Profit
$$32
ML ROI
8.1%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
3
Wins
2
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
66.7%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$16
ROI
5.2%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Alabama @ Michigan Alabama 28.9% +440 +11.2% LOSS
St. John's @ Duke Duke 73.3% -258 +4.2% WIN
Michigan State @ UConn UConn 56.6% -130 +2.3% WIN