Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-26
Latest Mar 25 Mar 24 Mar 22 Mar 21 Mar 20 Mar 19 Mar 18
All Games Summary
Total Picks
4
Final results
4
Correct picks
2
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
50.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (4)
Arkansas #14 (28-8) 88, Arizona #2 (34-2) 109 [21] Arizona (78.4%)
Texas (21-14) 77, Purdue #8 (29-8) 79 [2] Purdue (75.8%)
Nebraska #15 (28-6) 71, Iowa (23-12) 77 [6] Nebraska (62.4%)
Houston #5 (30-6) 55, Illinois #13 (26-8) 65 [10] Houston (59.2%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
4
Final results
4
Correct picks
2
Incorrect picks
2
Pending
0
Accuracy
50.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
4
Avg Confidence
69.0%
ECE (lower=better)
0.4184
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
4
ML Win Rate
50.0%
ML Profit
$$-145
ML ROI
-36.2%
5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Nebraska 71, Iowa 77 [6] Nebraska 62.4% -148 +5.2% LOSS
10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Iowa @ Nebraska Nebraska 62.4% -148 +5.2% LOSS