Test Predictions Recap
2026-03-25
Latest Mar 24 Mar 22 Mar 21 Mar 20 Mar 19 Mar 18 Mar 17
All Games Summary
Total Picks
2
Final results
2
Correct picks
1
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
0
Accuracy
50.0%
Game Predicted Score Prediction
✓ COMPLETED GAMES (2)
Dayton (25-11) 55, Illinois State (22-12) 61 [6] Dayton (76.2%)
Nevada (24-12) 69, Auburn (19-16) 75 [6] Auburn (70.4%)
Win/Loss Model (XGBoost)
Total Picks
2
Final results
2
Correct picks
1
Incorrect picks
1
Pending
0
Accuracy
50.0%
Win/Loss Model Calibration Quality
Calibrated Games
2
Avg Confidence
73.3%
ECE (lower=better)
0.2331
Calibration Quality
Needs Improvement
What is calibration? When our model says "70% confident", the team should win ~70% of the time. ECE measures this accuracy - lower is better.
Moneyline Betting Performance ($100/game)
Moneyline Bets
2
ML Win Rate
50.0%
ML Profit
$$-76
ML ROI
-37.8%
Recommended Picks (4.0+ Edge, ≤12 Spread, ≥65% Confidence)

No recommended picks met the criteria (4.0+ edge, ≤12 spread, ≥65% confidence).

Underdog ML Strategy
Underdog Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No underdog moneyline bets met the plus-money requirement today.

75% Confidence + 10% Edge Strategy
Edge Bets
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 75% confidence + 10% edge filters today.

5% Edge Strategy
5% Edge Picks
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets met the 5% edge filter today.

10% Edge ML Strategy
Edge Bets (10%+)
0
Wins
0
Losses
0
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$0
ROI
0.0%

No bets offered a 10%+ model edge today.

Top 3 Moneyline EV Strategy
Top 3 EV Bets
1
Wins
0
Losses
1
Pending
0
Win Rate
0.0%
Profit ($100/bet)
$$-100
ROI
-100.0%
Game Pick Confidence Moneyline Edge Result
Nevada @ Auburn Nevada 29.6% +320 +6.8% LOSS