NCAA Championship Odds 2026

NCAA Championship Odds

2025-26 Season Projections

Simulation Date: April 02, 2026

Favorite

Arizona

Odds

+266

Probability

27.3%

Projected Seed

60 teams

Rank	Team	Championship Probability	Implied Odds	Power
1 — —	(1) E Arizona 32-2	27.26%	+266	100.0
2 — —	(1) S Michigan 31-3	10.33%	+868	98.3
3 — —	(2) E Michigan State 25-7	9.75%	+925	70.3
4 — —	(1) M Florida 26-7	8.35%	+1097	76.2
5 — —	(3) E Illinois 24-8	7.10%	+1308	70.3
6 — —	(4) E Virginia 29-5	3.85%	+2497	67.2
7 — —	(2) S Purdue 27-8	3.62%	+2662	72.7
8 — —	(1) W Duke 32-2	3.50%	+2757	99.4
9 — —	(5) E Arkansas 26-8	3.20%	+3024	66.0
10 — —	(2) M UConn 29-5	2.73%	+3563	73.1
11 — —	(3) S Alabama 23-9	2.04%	+4801	69.0
12 — —	(6) E BYU 23-11	1.70%	+5782	58.2
13 — —	(3) M Gonzaga 30-3	1.62%	+6072	68.7
14 — —	(4) S St. John's 28-6	1.42%	+6942	67.5
15 — —	(4) M Nebraska 26-6	1.15%	+8595	67.5
16 — —	(6) M Tennessee 22-11	0.97%	+10209	64.0
17 — —	(6) S Georgia 22-10	0.95%	+10426	59.1
18 — —	(7) E TCU 22-11	0.80%	+12400	58.0
19 — —	(3) W Iowa State 27-7	0.79%	+12558	69.6
20 — —	(2) W Houston 28-6	0.76%	+13057	72.2
21 — —	(4) W Vanderbilt 26-8	0.68%	+14605	67.2
22 — —	(8) E Clemson 24-10	0.65%	+15284	54.8
23 — —	(8) M Louisville 23-10	0.54%	+18418	57.3
24 — —	(13) E Utah State 28-6	0.53%	+18767	53.9
25 — —	(8) S Miami 25-8	0.48%	+20733	57.0
26 — —	(5) S Wisconsin 24-10	0.46%	+21639	65.3
27 — —	(7) M North Carolina 24-8	0.46%	+21639	57.4
28 — —	(10) S Texas 18-14	0.41%	+24290	52.8
29 — —	(5) M Kansas 23-10	0.32%	+31150	64.8
30 — —	(14) E Yale 24-6	0.32%	+31150	37.3
31 — —	(7) S Ohio State 21-12	0.30%	+33233	57.6
32 — —	(12) M Missouri 20-12	0.26%	+38361	49.4
33 — —	(9) E Villanova 24-8	0.24%	+41566	54.7
34 — —	(6) W Kentucky 21-13	0.21%	+47519	58.7
35 — —	(5) W Texas Tech 22-10	0.20%	+49899	65.5
36 — —	(14) M Belmont 26-6	0.19%	+52531	42.9
37 — —	(10) M Texas A&M 21-11	0.19%	+52531	53.0
38 — —	(12) E San Diego State 22-11	0.17%	+58723	44.5
39 — —	(9) M Oklahoma 19-15	0.15%	+66566	53.7
40 — —	(10) W Auburn 17-16	0.14%	+71328	52.5
41 — —	(10) E UCF 21-11	0.13%	+76823	51.5
42 — —	(11) M SMU 20-13	0.11%	+90809	49.6
43 — —	(11) E Ole Miss 15-20	0.11%	+90809	51.0
44 — —	(15) E UNC Wilmington 26-6	0.10%	+99900	34.2
45 — —	(8) W UCLA 23-11	0.08%	+124900	56.1
46 — —	(13) S New Mexico 23-10	0.08%	+124900	44.5
47 — —	(9) S NC State 20-13	0.08%	+124900	53.7
48 — —	(14) S McNeese 28-5	0.07%	+142757	41.2
49 — —	(7) W Saint Mary's 27-5	0.07%	+142757	57.9
50 — —	(16) E Troy 22-11	0.06%	+166566	22.6
51 — —	(16) M Wright State 23-11	0.06%	+166566	26.8
52 — —	(11) S Washington 16-17	0.05%	+199900	49.7
53 — —	(15) S Utah Valley 25-8	0.05%	+199900	31.3
54 — —	(14) W High Point 30-4	0.05%	+199900	40.7
55 — —	(11) W Iowa 21-12	0.03%	+333233	50.7
56 — —	(13) M Akron 29-5	0.03%	+333233	44.1
57 — —	(12) S Northwestern 15-19	0.02%	+499900	48.8
58 — —	(12) W Indiana 18-14	0.01%	+999900	48.8
59 — —	(9) W Stanford 20-12	0.01%	+999900	54.1
60 — —	(15) M Navy 26-7	0.01%	+999900	26.8
61 — —	BUBBLE Cincinnati 18-15	Not in Tournament	--	48.8
62 — —	BUBBLE Seton Hall 21-12	Not in Tournament	--	48.7
63 — —	BUBBLE Florida State 18-15	Not in Tournament	--	48.5
64 — —	BUBBLE Baylor 16-16	Not in Tournament	--	48.4
65 — —	BUBBLE Arizona State 17-16	Not in Tournament	--	48.3
66 — —	BUBBLE USC 18-14	Not in Tournament	--	47.2
67 — —	BUBBLE Santa Clara 26-8	Not in Tournament	--	47.1
68 — —	BUBBLE Wake Forest 17-16	Not in Tournament	--	46.9
69 — —	BUBBLE LSU 15-17	Not in Tournament	--	45.9
70 — —	BUBBLE Oklahoma State 19-14	Not in Tournament	--	45.2
71 — —	BUBBLE California 21-11	Not in Tournament	--	45.0

Methodology: Championship probabilities are calculated by simulating the NCAA tournament 10,000 times using our XGBoost win/loss model (77% historical accuracy). Tournament seeds are projected based on current power rankings derived from 2026 season performance data. Probabilities reflect each team's likelihood of winning the national championship if the tournament started today.

Note: These projections will update weekly as the season progresses and more games are completed. Actual tournament seeding may differ based on Selection Committee decisions, conference tournament results, and automatic bids.

Total Contenders

Top 4 Combined

55.7%

Seeds in Top 10

Last updated: April 02, 2026 at 07:40 AM ET

How to read this bracket: This shows advancement probabilities for multiple teams in each round, not a single predicted bracket. Each matchup shows the most likely teams to compete at that stage, with their probability of reaching that round.

Both teams can advance: The percentages represent each team's chance of reaching that round based on 10,000 simulations. For example, if Michigan shows 76.7% for Round of 32 and Iowa shows 67.9%, both teams have a chance to advance from Round of 64.

Upsets ARE happening: In our simulations, lower seeds regularly upset favorites: • 8-seeds reach Sweet 16 ~28% of the time (expected: 18%) • 10-seeds reach Sweet 16 ~9% of the time (expected: <1%) • 16-seeds have upset 1-seeds 55 times out of 10,000 (0.5% chance - like UMBC!)

For a single predicted bracket with upsets, use the Cinderella Report or check round-by-round advancement probabilities.

East

Round of 64

1Arizona84.4%

16Troy15.6%

8Clemson69.7%

9Villanova30.3%

5Arkansas80.6%

12San Diego State19.4%

4Virginia70.0%

13Utah State30.0%

6BYU80.6%

11Ole Miss19.4%

3Illinois71.5%

14Yale28.5%

7TCU80.0%

10UCF20.1%

2Michigan State78.9%

15UNC Wilmington21.1%

Round of 32

Arizona81.0%

Clemson19.0%

Arkansas32.2%

Virginia67.8%

BYU19.8%

Illinois80.2%

TCU19.6%

Michigan State80.4%

Sweet 16

Arizona80.6%

Virginia19.4%

Illinois32.2%

Michigan State67.8%

Elite 8

Arizona80.1%

Michigan State19.9%

South

Round of 64

1Michigan84.8%

16Portland State15.2%

8Miami79.7%

9NC State20.3%

5Wisconsin80.2%

12Northwestern19.8%

4St. John's80.3%

13New Mexico19.7%

6Georgia80.2%

11Washington19.9%

3Alabama75.4%

14McNeese24.6%

7Ohio State69.6%

10Texas30.4%

2Purdue71.5%

15Utah Valley28.5%

Round of 32

Michigan81.5%

Miami18.5%

Wisconsin20.1%

St. John's79.9%

Georgia30.2%

Alabama69.8%

Ohio State19.8%

Purdue80.2%

Sweet 16

Michigan80.6%

St. John's19.4%

Alabama19.9%

Purdue80.1%

Elite 8

Michigan80.4%

Purdue19.6%

West

Round of 64

1Duke84.4%

16Austin Peay15.6%

8UCLA70.1%

9Stanford29.9%

5Texas Tech79.0%

12Indiana21.0%

4Vanderbilt80.1%

13Santa Clara19.9%

6Kentucky69.7%

11Iowa30.3%

3Iowa State71.5%

14High Point28.5%

7Saint Mary's69.6%

10Auburn30.4%

2Houston82.4%

15UC Irvine17.6%

Round of 32

Duke81.2%

UCLA18.8%

Texas Tech20.4%

Vanderbilt79.6%

Kentucky19.9%

Iowa State80.1%

Saint Mary's29.7%

Houston70.3%

Sweet 16

Duke80.6%

Vanderbilt19.4%

Iowa State30.3%

Houston69.7%

Elite 8

Duke80.2%

Houston19.8%

Midwest

Round of 64

1Florida85.2%

16Wright State14.8%

8Louisville70.6%

9Oklahoma29.4%

5Kansas70.5%

12Missouri29.5%

4Nebraska70.6%

13Akron29.4%

6Tennessee80.1%

11SMU19.9%

3Gonzaga71.5%

14Belmont28.5%

7North Carolina70.1%

10Texas A&M29.9%

2UConn75.1%

15Navy24.9%

Round of 32

Florida80.1%

Louisville19.9%

Kansas20.3%

Nebraska79.7%

Tennessee30.1%

Gonzaga69.9%

North Carolina24.8%

UConn75.2%

Sweet 16

Florida80.2%

Nebraska19.8%

Gonzaga26.3%

UConn73.7%

Elite 8

Florida80.0%

UConn20.0%

Final Four

Arizona76.5%

Michigan23.5%

Duke27.5%

Florida72.5%

Championship Game

Arizona79.6%

Florida20.4%

Champion

Arizona27.3%

The Lab Analytics|Basketball

East

South

West

Midwest

Final Four