2025-26 SEASON
NCAA Tournament Upset Candidates - Updated April 02, 2026 at 07:40 AM
| Rank | Team | Seed | Region | Conference | Power Rating | Power Advantage | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Win | Cinderella Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1↑ +1 | Wright State23-11 | 16 | Midwest | Horizon | 26.80 | -27.2 | 14.3% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.06% | 50.76x |
| 2↓ -1 | Austin Peay22-9 | 16 | West | ASUN | 23.05 | -30.9 | 16.4% | 4.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | nan% | 48.26x |
| 3— — | Troy22-11 | 16 | East | Sun Belt | 22.61 | -31.4 | 15.8% | 3.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.06% | 37.88x |
| 4— — | Utah Valley25-8 | 15 | South | WAC | 31.34 | -24.7 | 28.9% | 7.2% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.05% | 29.38x |
| 5↑ +4 | High Point30-4 | 14 | West | Big South | 40.67 | -17.3 | 28.9% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 0.8% | 0.05% | 18.89x |
| 6↑ +1 | Belmont26-6 | 14 | Midwest | MVC | 42.91 | -15.1 | 29.3% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 0.7% | 0.19% | 18.77x |
| 7↓ -1 | Yale24-6 | 14 | East | Ivy | 37.32 | -20.7 | 28.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.32% | 17.52x |
| 8↓ -3 | Portland State20-11 | 16 | South | Big Sky | 25.54 | -28.5 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | nan% | 17.50x |
| 9↓ -1 | UNC Wilmington26-6 | 15 | East | CAA | 34.22 | -21.8 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.10% | 14.92x |
| 10— — | Navy26-7 | 15 | Midwest | Patriot | 26.80 | -29.2 | 24.2% | 5.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.01% | 13.21x |
| 11— — | McNeese28-5 | 14 | South | Southland | 41.22 | -16.8 | 24.8% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.07% | 10.08x |
| 12— — | UC Irvine23-11 | 15 | West | Big West | 33.23 | -22.8 | 17.2% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | nan% | 9.19x |
| 13— — | Utah State28-6 | 13 | East | Mountain West | 53.93 | -6.1 | 30.1% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.53% | 8.88x |
| 14— — | Akron29-5 | 13 | Midwest | MAC | 44.10 | -15.9 | 29.5% | 7.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.03% | 5.59x |
| 15— — | Missouri20-12 | 12 | Midwest | SEC | 49.42 | -12.6 | 29.9% | 13.5% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.26% | 5.48x |
| 16— — | Santa Clara26-8 | 13 | West | WCC | 47.09 | -12.9 | 20.0% | 5.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | nan% | 4.62x |
| 17— — | New Mexico23-10 | 13 | South | Mountain West | 44.49 | -15.5 | 19.8% | 5.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.08% | 3.85x |
| 18— — | Iowa21-12 | 11 | West | Big Ten | 50.66 | -13.3 | 30.3% | 10.1% | 3.2% | 0.8% | 0.03% | 2.89x |
| 19— — | SMU20-13 | 11 | Midwest | ACC | 49.59 | -14.4 | 20.1% | 8.1% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.11% | 2.42x |
| 20↑ +1 | Texas18-14 | 10 | South | SEC | 52.81 | -13.2 | 30.7% | 13.6% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.41% | 2.40x |
| Region | Matchup | Favorite Advances | Upset Probability | Upset Alert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West | (7) Saint Mary's vs (10) Auburn | 68.7% | 31.3% | ⚠️ MEDIUM |
| South | (7) Ohio State vs (10) Texas | 69.3% | 30.7% | ⚠️ MEDIUM |
| West | (6) Kentucky vs (11) Iowa | 69.7% | 30.3% | ⚠️ MEDIUM |
| East | (8) Clemson vs (9) Villanova | 69.8% | 30.2% | ⚠️ MEDIUM |
| East | (4) Virginia vs (13) Utah State | 69.9% | 30.1% | ⚠️ MEDIUM |
| Midwest | (5) Kansas vs (12) Missouri | 70.0% | 30.0% | 👀 WATCH |
| West | (8) UCLA vs (9) Stanford | 70.2% | 29.8% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (7) North Carolina vs (10) Texas A&M | 70.2% | 29.8% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (4) Nebraska vs (13) Akron | 70.5% | 29.5% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (3) Gonzaga vs (14) Belmont | 70.7% | 29.3% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (8) Louisville vs (9) Oklahoma | 71.0% | 29.0% | 👀 WATCH |
| South | (2) Purdue vs (15) Utah Valley | 71.1% | 28.9% | 👀 WATCH |
| West | (3) Iowa State vs (14) High Point | 71.2% | 28.8% | 👀 WATCH |
| East | (3) Illinois vs (14) Yale | 72.0% | 28.0% | 👀 WATCH |
| South | (3) Alabama vs (14) McNeese | 75.2% | 24.8% | 👀 WATCH |
| Midwest | (2) UConn vs (15) Navy | 75.8% | 24.2% | 👀 WATCH |
