The Lab Analytics|College Baseball

2026
2026 College World Series · Bracket One · Game 4
Troy 37-30
vs
Ole Miss 41-23
Sunday, June 14, 2026 · 2:00 PM ET · Charles Schwab Field, Omaha
Troy 12  —  Ole Miss 8Final
Model pick: Ole Miss (63%) — missed

No. 45 Troy (37-30) meet No. 10 Ole Miss (41-23) at Charles Schwab Field in Omaha in an elimination game. Troy bring the louder offense (7.1 runs per game), while Ole Miss counter with the better staff (4.08 team ERA). Our model makes Ole Miss the favorite at 63%, with tournament-calibrated probabilities from 10,000 bracket simulations.

Road to Omaha

Regionals · 4-1
L 5-10 vs Miami (FL)
W 15-7 vs Rider
W 9-6 vs Miami (FL)
W 16-11 vs Florida
W 10-2 vs Florida
Super Regional · 2-0
W 12-2 vs Little Rock
W 7-2 vs Little Rock
Regionals · 3-0
W 7-6 vs Arizona St.
W 6-3 vs Nebraska
W 5-4 vs Arizona St.
Super Regional · 2-0
W 6-4 vs Auburn
W 5-3 vs Auburn

Team Comparison

TroyOle Miss
#45Power Rank#10
37-30Record41-23
Sun Belt 18-14ConferenceSEC 17-17
+3.23SRS+5.26
7.1Runs / Game6.8
5.46Team ERA4.08
0.779Team wOBA0.732
1.54WHIP1.30
8.7K/911.8
721Home Runs781
0.975Fielding %0.975
7-3Last 106-4
6-4Neutral Sites5-6
10-14vs SRS Top 5019-19

Players to Watch

Top Hitter
Jimmy Janicki
0.344 AVG · 1.084 OPS · 21 HR
Power
Blake Cavill
14 HR · 0.925 OPS
Ace
Hayden SmithP
4-0 · 3.24 ERA · 30 K
Bullpen Leader
Dylan AlonsoP
7 SV · 4.63 ERA · 10.7 K/9
Top Hitter
Judd Utermark
0.309 AVG · 1.049 OPS · 22 HR
Power
Tristan Bissetta
23 HR · 0.983 OPS
Ace
Taylor RabeP
5-3 · 3.55 ERA · 105 K
Bullpen Leader
Walker HooksP
9 SV · 3.24 ERA · 9.8 K/9

2026 Head-to-Head

06-14-2026Troy 12, Ole Miss 8

Common Opponents

OpponentTroyOle Miss
GeorgiaW 2/25 · L 4/28W 4/25 · L 4/25 · L 4/26
Mississippi St.L 2/17L 3/27 · L 3/28 · L 3/29 · L 4/28
FloridaW 5/31 · W 6/1W 4/2 · L 4/3 · W 4/4
Southern Miss.W 3/20 · L 3/21 · L 3/22 · L 5/24L 3/10 · W 4/14
AlabamaL 3/10 · W 5/5L 5/14 · W 5/15 · L 5/16
Arkansas St.W 4/2 · L 4/3 · W 4/4W 2/17